Market December 20, 2023

Why is Inventory so Low?

Yesterday I wrote about the low inventory and the challenges buyers face with supply not measuring up to demand. I did not address the reason why buyers have so little to choose from, and that’s what I’ll attempt to tackle.

There is no single factor for such a dramatic shortage. It is more of a perfect storm of circumstances at play, and that makes for a conundrum that isn’t very easy to solve.

  1. We aren’t building. In 2007, almost 1200 new builds were entered into the MLS in Westchester County, with another 263 up in Putnam. In 2022, only 263 New builds were listed in Westchester, with a paltry 63 added in Putnam.
  2. Foreclosures and Distress have dropped dramatically. When the pandemic hit in 2020, a moratorium was made on banks foreclosing on delinquent mortgages that lasted until last year. There were 356 bank owned foreclosures listed in Westchester in 2019, the last year before the pandemic. In 2023 there have only been 114 listed. Foreclosure is a judicial process in New York, which means that new cases will be meandering through courts for years before that number goes up appreciably. Foreclosures do more than present a possible bargain. They also have a check and balance effect on values of non-distressed properties. That effect, and the option for buyers, is largely absent.
  3. The Golden Handcuffs. I wish I made up that term. What it means is that the “move up’ sector of the market is ostensibly trapped in properties bought or refinanced when rates were half of what they are now. If you bought a $500,000 house in 2016 with a 3.5% mortgage, buying a more expensive move up type of home with rates at 7% today adversely affects your mobility. This is the case for millions of potential buyers. People expect a higher payment when they buy a bigger, more expensive home but this is a far bigger case of sticker shock than any market we’ve ever seen. A $400,000 mortgage at 3.5% is a principle and interest payment of just under $1800. A $600,000 mortgage at 7% is almost $4,000. Millions of people who might otherwise move are staying put simply because the math doesn’t work.
  4. The Paralysis of Uncertainty is now greatly enhanced. In normal times when the vast majority of people list their house for sale, they may not know exactly what they are going to buy, but they trust that they’ll find their next home with a high level of certainty. The prevailing wisdom has always been to make sure you have a buyer for your home before you start making offers on your next place. Now that narrative is flipped. People who might otherwise list their home for sale are staying on the sidelines because they simply have no idea where they are going to go. With no evident options, more people are staying put.

You’ll note that rates should adversely affect demand and cool things off. When rates rose it did have an effect, but as my C.C.O. Joe Rand has often said, when you slow down from 100mph to 65 mph, it’s still pretty fast. Bidding wars that had a dozen offers now have 3 or 4. That’s still a strong seller advantage.

So, with move up buyers staying put, other potential sellers not knowing where they will go, an 80% drop in new builds compared to 15 years ago and a dearth of bank foreclosures, we have a monster with many heads to slay. How does this get fixed?

I’ll opine on that in my next post.

CommentaryMarket December 19, 2023

How Slow is the Market in December and the Holidays?

The cyclical nature of the market is a long discussed topic. It’s no secret that the traditional “busy season” is the spring, with the key word “traditionally.” In typical market cycles, the summer remains active, transactions tail off in the autumn, and things get quiet around the holidays and winter time.

But we aren’t in a typical market here in Westchester and the surrounding areas, and we haven’t been since the Covid pandemic. Right now, the low inventory has resulted in a significant amount of pent up demand, and homes listed around the holidays are enjoying attention that makes it feel like spring despite the temperature. There are legions of prospective home buyers who didn’t have much luck in the spring or summer who are still looking in earnest.

Before I explain why inventory is so low, let me draw a picture of what buyers are dealing with by looking at history.

In November of 2019, 365 single family homes were listed for sale in Westchester County.
In November of 2023, 292 single family homes were listed for sale in the county. That’s not an insignificant difference, but let’s look at May of both years:
May 2019: 1285 new listings
May 2023: 733 new listings

522 fewer listings going active in the traditional busy season is going to have a domino effect. The law of supply and demand is unforgiving, and even though rates virtually doubled from the same time last year, it remains a robust seller’s market and with good reason. People still prefer to live indoors. Westchester is a destination for many reasons, not the least of which is that big city a short train ride south of us. Yet this is not just a Westchester thing; inventory is low everywhere, with similar dynamics challenging buyers.

Instead of winter hibernation, buyers remain on the hunt until they can find something they can buy. We’ve always said that anyone looking this time of year is typically more serious than average, and their numbers have grown. Low inventory does that; unsatisfied demand remains until it is satisfied.

Why is inventory so low? I’ll dive into that in the next post. Suffice to say, if you want to need to sell, waiting isn’t necessary. The buyers are active and looking like Easter, not Christmas, is around the corner.

Market November 10, 2023

What Can You Buy in Irvington for $799,000?

Prices are up these days, but $799,000 was all a buyer paid on our recent closing on 21 Beechwood in the Village of Irvington. The home was a fixer upper, and that is indicative of local values for the condition.

Irvington fixer upper colonial on a dead end street

“Bring your contractor! Classic mid century center hall colonial on a cul de sac with a large deck overlooking a spacious yard. Good bones but in need of some love and priced to reflect the condition. Spacious rooms, large great room with fireplace, eat in kitchen with sliders to rear deck, 2 car attached garage and ample parking, and plenty of room for living on each floor. Excellent location, quiet dead end street, huge upside and potential. Fantastic commuter location, close proximity to the river towns and all that they offer, and hard to beat the lifestyle at this price point!”

These homes are rare and don’t last long, so contact me for the first look when they hit the market next time!

CommentaryMarketPimpage August 1, 2023

What can you buy in Mahopac for $305,000?

Prices are up, but lower cost homes are still possible if you don’t need lots of bedrooms, like the home we just closed at 27 Jackson Road, just a few hundred yards from Kirk Lake.

“Great opportunity to own a unique charmer with Lake Rights seasonal views of Kirk Lake in a secluded, wooded setting. The first floor has a lovely hearth in the open living room with vaulted ceiling a bright and airy wall of windows looking out at the lake. French doors lead to a spacious deck with a view. Eat in kitchen, first floor bedroom and a full bath complete the main floor. Upstairs is a loft with lots of natural light, an even better view, and can be used as a second quarter, home office, or rec area. Off-street parking for 2 cars. No through traffic street. Investment potential or owner occupant as a condo alternative.”

Uncategorized July 13, 2023

What $449,000 Buys in Peekskill

$449,000 will buy you a condominium with Hudson Views like the one I just closed on. The MLS description for the property are as follows:

“Amazing Hudson River views, just yards from the metro north train station, and minutes from all that downtown Peekskill and the wonderful waterfront offer! Modern kitchen with roomy granite countertops. Open floor plan and back door opens to the rear deck- great setting for a quiet experience overlooking the majestic Hudson! Master suite has even more breathtaking Hudson views. Shuttle to the train. Complex amenities include clubhouse, health club, heated pools and lounge. Spacious bedrooms and plenty of closet space, and a second floor laundry to make the living even more easy!”

This one is sold, but we have more. Contact me at 914-450-8883 for information on finding one like it!

Company News May 16, 2023

Happy News on Joining Forces with Howard Hanna Rand Realty!

Company NewsPimpage May 4, 2022

Some Shameless Self Promotion

Most weeks in our training we publish a “sexy stat” about the company. It might be an obscure, cool thing like how our sign appeared in the movie Wakefield with Bryan Cranston carrying it, or some milestone.

This past April was a nice accomplishment. 

On April 15th, we broke our record for properties put under contract for the month. You read that right; we passed the old record mid-month. When the dust settled, we more than doubled our best April ever, and had our very best month ever in the history of the brand with just an eyelash under $21 million put under contract. This says something. I often tell the agents that what you do today is your love letter to Future You in 60 days or so. Clearly, our team did some hard work over the past 90 days to make this happen, and May has kept up the momentum. 

Spring is the busy cycle of the market and the wind was at our back to a degree, but we also rose to the task and made close to 50 clients happy. The market is robust but that doesn’t mean that every agent has it easy. Quite the contrary. 

So, I tip my cap to my team on their hard work, their commitment, professionalism, and their grit. The best is yet to come. 

CommentaryIndustry News April 28, 2022

On the Latest New York Standard Operating Procedure Law

First, some background: In late 2019, Long Island Newsday published the shocking results of an investigation where reporters of different ethnicities and races went undercover as prospective homebuyers and the different ways they were treated by the real estate agents they engaged. Long Island Divided made national news and reverberated across the industry as professionals were faced with hours of footage showing how white prospects were treated differently than their counterparts of color. It was awful to watch. White home buyers were treated far more favorably. Among the hurdles placed before black and Hispanic buyers were requirements for being pre-approved before seeing homes, being asked to sign a representation contract before seeing properties, and being asked to produce ID. 

These things are not bad in and of themselves; a pre approval and exclusive right to represent are considered “best practices” before home shopping.  The problem was that white home buyers seldom had these hoops to jump through. There was plenty of cringeworthy, disparate, and biased treatment that seemed awfully coincidentally tied to the race of the buyers, and the data reported on how white home buyers were treated compared to other races was damning. Worse, some of the companies reacted very poorly to the report. 

In response, the state government passed a new law mandating an additional fair housing disclosure to be signed by all prospects at first substantive contact so the consumer would know their rights, and for the disclosure to be posted prominently in all real estate offices. No one was under the illusion that a piece of paper would change peoples’ hearts, but it did appear to make a difference in informing consumers of their rights.

But that wasn’t the end of it. This year, Albany passed another law requiring brokerages to publicly disclose a uniform standard operating procedure as on whether or not the brokerage would require a pre approval, exclusive representation contract, and showing identification before serving the consumer.  On the face of it to the layperson that might seem reasonable. However, real estate agents are independent contractors with different business models. Asking for a pre approval up front is baked into the practices of many of our agents. Others are willing to meet up without a pre approval or proof of funds up front, and so long as the agent themselves are consistent, no bias could be explicated. It made sense (and is still the way it is in the other 49 states), that so long as an agent who would, for example, tell a $1000 rental prospect that rentals weren’t their specialty, that they wouldn’t suddenly be open to rentals with a $10,000 budget consumer. The law doesn’t see dollar amount in that example, it just saw bias that would unfairly affect folks with lower economic means, more likely to be minorities.  

The new law, however, expands the bias to the entire brokerage without any consideration for details like agent safety, business models, or other circumstances. This made brokerages face difficult choices. If a company chose to not require pre approvals, for example, then it would be an infraction for an individual agent to practice a business model to require them. The converse would be the issue for brokerages that might require ID, financials, or an exclusive contract. The conundrum for brokerages with more than a handful of agents is the big tents so many companies have with the business practices of their independent contractors. Now, to the state’s credit, they aren’t making a judgement about requiring or not requiring these things in and of themselves; they want consistency. But making the consistency brokerage wide rather than for individual practices could be construed as overreach. 

Some agents, for example require a pre approval ahead of time to verify the identity of the consumer for safety purposes. This is understandable. Other agents might not be concerned about safety so much. And circumstances can change. We meet strangers alone in empty houses for a living many times. Other times we meet people in crowded setting like a high trafficked apartment complex. This has nothing to do with the ethnicity or race of the consumer. 

To complicate matters, these rules go out the window when a homes seller requires ID or a pre approval. Those preferences must be obliged regardless of company policy. 

I predicted that larger firms would not require any of the three up front as a condition of service and smaller firms might be more likely. Since the operating procedures have to be on the company websites, I was able to confirm that I was correct. 

I’ll also predict that more homeowners will be coached to require pre approvals so the brokerage community could be off the hook to a degree. Time will tell on that. The law may change after feedback from the industry to legislators, but it is also an incredibly sensitive thing to debate- no one wants to be the brand that might have appearance of being against any fair housing initiative. 

This brand has chosen to not make ID, exclusive contracts, or pre approvals a requirement, as the graphic above says. We have a number of agents who have historically required them as a condition of service, and we are training our agents to be consistent in being sensitive to the different consumer preferences and refer a prospective client to a colleague in the firm when in the past they might have felt they weren’t a professional match. This will surely evolve, but I’ll agree with Albany about one thing: if we have to make a choice between the unbiased experience of the consumer and the convenience of the professional, the consumer must get the nod. 

CommentaryIndustry NewsMarket April 11, 2022

Just Because the Market is “Hot” Doesn’t Mean Real Estate Agents Have it Easy

Easy Button real estateI don’t think I’ve seen the following thought written anywhere lately, but I’ll say it:

The average real estate agent has never worked harder than they have in this market

That seems contrary to the public perception that rising prices and a “hot” market is when agents have it easy, but extreme conditions aren’t conducive to a leisurely business model. 

For example, when an agent sells their new listing the first weekend that it’s active for more than asking, it not only doesn’t mean things are easier for them, it can have a deleterious effect on their bottom line. 

Listing agent challenges include:

  • More difficulty procuring the listings. Competition is higher for the listing, and many homeowners need a plan on where they’ll go once they sell because that’s the biggest challenge. You have to have a detailed plan in beyond the sale, which is unheard of in any market I’ve ever seen before this one. Before this market the plan was “find a place to buy/move to.”
  • Bidding wars aren’t fun, and can get messy. The passions around housing are high enough, but try explaining to a colleague why their cash offer $50,000 over asking is in 3rd position. And there is no margin for error, as the devil is often in the details on offers, and missing a key term can cost. If you meet an agent with bags under their eyes, they were likely parsing the details of 6-10 offers with a nervous client to help them make a decision.
  • Appraisals can be a nightmare. When prices spike dramatically, the 6 month lookback at comparable sales is at lower cost transactions. Buyers can offer cash protection, but it’s not automatic and an appraisal $25,000 under contract price can spark some serious buyer remorse that reverberates to all parties. 
  • Greed. Sellers view the current market as a once in a lifetime chance to ring the bell, but it can blur their common sense and cause them to have unrealistic expectations even if everything goes right. For example, suppose a listing goes active for $800,000 and sells for asking price within the first week. Great, right? But if the seller had a fantasy that they’d get $860,000 in a bidding war based on what they see on the news, they need to be talked off a ledge. 
  • Lack of professionalism. There are 1.5 million members of NAR right now, up 50% from the housing crash. That means hundreds of thousands of rookie agents who have no substantive experience. When the market gets hot, old failures take their licenses out of mothballs, and newbies jump in with deplorably sparse training. Doing business with a poorly trained agent on the other side of a deal is brutal. 
  • Loss of income. This is counterintuitive, but all too real. Less inventory spread over a dramatic increase in agents is bad enough, but the big aggregators are getting in on the commission via onerous referral fees. We used to pay for advertising on Zillow, Trulia, and Realtor.com. Now those companies take referral fees of 35% on a typical transaction, meaning that if you sell a $450,000 property your commission is more reflective of a $300,000 closing. So higher prices not only don’t mean more commission, they mean lower earnings spread over fewer transactions. 

 

Other issues are more inside baseball, but the model of the industry has always been predicated on the longstanding idea that carrying a listing for any period of time will develop new prospective client relationships with inquiries on the listing. When the listing is gone the first weekend, that can’t happen. I understand this means little to the consumer, but it’s a factor that can’t be denied. 

On the buying side, agents representing prospective purchasers are in trench warfare. Buyer agents in our firm have fewer properties to show their clients, and many of our successful buyers have not hit paydirt until their 4th or 7th attempt to buy. That’s madness. Worse, buyers are selling their souls to get accepted offers by waiving inspections, offering cash to make up for appraisal deficiencies, and in some cases even waiving mortgage contingencies. Surrendering your own security and exposing yourself to that kind of liability is not only stressful and risky, it can be destructive if everything doesn’t go perfectly. 

In any industry, volatility is not a welcome thing. Stability, even if it’s considered boring, is a far better market condition. Give me boring any day. Leave the volatility for the Oscars. 

 

Stay tuned for my next post on why this is brutal for consumers as well! 

CommentaryHome Improvement  April 7, 2022

What Will Solar Power do for Property Values?

I got a question from a client about the effect that installing solar panels might have on their home’s value. It’s a good question, actually. Years ago when hurricanes knocked out power in our area for more than a week, I opined that backup generators would become the new status symbol. While I wasn’t wrong, green initiatives are gaining momentum and NAR even has a Green Housing certification for agents.

I plan on getting solar power in the near future. I see panels everywhere I go. I’m more interested in saving on my bills and not burning fossil fuels, but it is a good question- will solar panels increase value? 

In all candor, this is not something I can speak to clearly on my own- the data is not too plentiful. Of the thousands of homes sold in Westchester in the last year, only a few dozen had solar. I can see why; the technology is relatively new and most people who install solar do so because they aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. So, there really isn’t a statistically significant number locally to go by. 

That doesn’t help me answer the client’s question, so I did a little snooping around, and Zillow released a study in 2019 that confirmed that solar raises value by 4.1%. Zillow has way more data to crunch than I do, so there’s you’re answer based on their study. This is hard data and not an algorithm attempting to estimate value sight unseen, so I think the findings are reliable. 

As I shared with my client:

 

My take is that there is no downside, leased or owned. There is no evidence I’ve ever found that said it harmed value. I think as time goes by more data will confirm Zillow’s finding.

I see more and more homes converting, and I’m planning on installing panels later this year so the trend is positive.

Younger buyers also prefer more green solutions and millennials comprise the bulk of the forecast of buyers in the coming years.

I’d proceed.

 

And I’ll do so myself in the next year.