I’m relatively old. I remember Nixon resigning office, Tang commercials, news stories on the war in Vietnam, and lots of other things from when Kitchens were green and gold. I remember when mortgage interest rates topped 20% in the early 1980s, and my father telling my mother how rates didn’t matter, payment amounts did. He was an accountant, so he wasn’t playing out of position on that one. 

Having lived through two housing crashes in my 54 years, I’ve become a student of what to look for so that what I endured in 2008-10 will never catch me unprepared again. So when I’m asked if rising rates will stall the market, I have to laugh. 

A brief, immutable point before I go on:

People like living indoors. It’s not a fad. People will continue to live indoors no matter what. 

Property values are funny things. They continue to rise in almost any environment: war, pandemics, Republican administrations, Democratic administrations, impeachments, killer bees, societal unrest, years the Red Sox win the World Series, almost anything. Why? Because people like living indoors. We are not a society of Bedouin nomads, camping enthusiasts, or Vikings. We like heat, plumbing, running water, and other creature comforts that come with permanent shelter. Property values only have one Achilles heel or kryptonite, and that is a near total financial collapse that results in banks not loaning money.

I’ll say it again: The two times in my life where values cratered were eerily similar: Billions of dollars in bad mortgage loans that caused a plethora of bank failures, resulting in a Stock market crash and a financial crisis where the mortgage industry got overcautious and values declined. In the late 80s, the massive Savings and Loan collapse preceded Black Monday in 1987, and a doozy of a recession that dealt a blow to values that didn’t recover until the early to mid 1990s. In the late 2000s, billions of dollars of subprime mortgages caused the subprime lenders to fail, and the resulting financial crisis hammered real estate more severely than anything since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

I’ll simplify the recipe:

1. Two scoops of bad paper loans
2. Bank failures due to bad loans
3. Financial crisis
4. Banks curtail lending
5. Values suffer due to buyers not being able to borrow

People have borrowed money and bought real estate despite wars, crazy rates, pandemics, terrorist attacks, inflation, bad Oscar years, crappy Star Wars sequels, and even New Coke. Why? Because people like living indoors. As a matter of fact, there is absolutely no historical correlation between rates and values. In 1975, the average home value was $38100. Rates that year were in the 9s. In 1981, rates approached 17% and property values nearly doubled from 6 years prior. In 2005, the average property value in the US was 232,000, with rates just under 6%, and in 2010 rates fell nearly a point but values fell to $222,000. 

This isn’t to say that rates aren’t a factor. They are. I’ve written about this twice, and used the manipulation of rates to predict, rather accurately, both the crash of 2008 and the spike in values were are seeing today. By the way, I smile at the first old blog post from 2006 because my brother, the financial guru, made the following comment: “the stock market is likely to be in very good shape in 2008.”

I can’t speak to the current stability of the stock market, but I do know that there is a fraction of the amount of risky mortgage paper out there now compared to 2007 or 1986. And that bodes well for the health of property values for the foreseeable future.

While making a training video on market reports for the agents this past week, I clicked on an old market report I wrote in November 2011 for Ossining. Among other things, I noted that there were 119 single family homes available for sale in the school district at that time. In working on current data, I had to blink and see if the current inventory number was accurate, because it is cartoonishly low.

12.

There are 12 active single family homes in the Ossining School district, and that is at a time when the spring market inventory should be trending up. This has affected prices significantly- in November 2011, the median price was roughly $380,000. Today? $504,000. That’s almost a 33% increase.

Contributing to the low inventory is the reticence of those in a position to sell because they don’t see a viable housing option currently listed. That’s scary. My advice for prospective sellers who aren’t sure where they’ll go if they sell: Look at your options- sell subject to finding suitable property, make sure you have a flexible, extendable closing date, and, if you can, buy before you sell.

Buyers need to have their act together- make sure you have a pre approval for the house you want to see Sunday, because it will be gone by Monday to someone who already learned that lesson the hard way. Buyers in the market need to be locked, loaded and ready to go. The competition for such a small amount of options has never been tighter.

I recently closed on this listing for over $50,000 over asking price. This is an example of how values have grown in the area. The description of the home in the MLS is as follows:

“This is the village of Briarcliff Manor lifestyle you’ve sought in a 5 bedroom split that lives like a colonial. Master suite was an addition so you get 2 bedrooms with baths en suite. Balcony overlooking back yard will reveal a marvelous rear garden, a patio with custom masonry including a working stone oven & seasonal foliage to die for. Rectangular corner lot leverages the quiet tree lined neighborhood with ample room for recreation, gardening & entertaining. Two car garage plus parking for 6-8 cars easily. Inside you’ll fall in love with the spacious kitchen with garden views, living room with high ceiling & custom wood burning fireplace, dining room with doors to the back yard, and a family room on the lower level lots of light, access to the patio, and a half bath for convenience. Law Park with its fabulous pool and downtown are moments away by car. All bedrooms are roomy and boast ample closet space. Gas backup generator. Pride of decades long ownership shines through here!”

This one is sold, but we have more. You can call me at 914-450-8883 for more information.

We were actually gratified to list and sell this property after selling it to the owners a few years prior. They did benefit from appreciation, selling for $568,000 after purchasing it for $395,000 7 years before.

As described in the MLS:

This is a adorable 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch home on nearly half an acre with a garage and double sized driveway. It has excellent flow, a chef’s kitchen and fabulous outdoor deck overlooking picturesque garden and yard. There is a custom built shed for all your tools and hobbies. Established perennial bed, and garden has been organic for the last 7 years. Many new upgrades including Burnham boiler in 2014 and improved insulation in 2014 after NYS energy survey. New kitchen appliance in 2018, a 6 burner range, dishwasher, and a high volume Zephyr Air Extractor over the range for excellent exhaust. Second refrigerator in basement. It has a fireplace in the family room and an upgraded electrical panel 2019.

While the house is nearly 1500 square feet, the full basement offers additional space.

$575,000 buys an awfully nice home these days, like the 3 bedroom, 2 bath split we recently closed for a seller client on Leawood Drive.

As the MLS described:
This is a TRUE GEM in a four cul-de-sac neighborhood of about 70 houses! Besides being completely renovated and move-in ready, what sets this house apart is its property; with nearly twice as much land as many plots, the owner really does have the “park-like” setting you read about! With woods on one side and in back, and location in the cul-de-sac – it also is quiet and has much more privacy, too! Back to the house itself, the floor plan on the main level features an updated, Eat In Kitchen with a formal Dining Room and doors out to a HUGE Deck – perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, the three very nice-sized Bedrooms feature pristine hardwood floors – much of them recently refinished – with both the Master Bedroom and Hall having beautifully modernized, sleek and polished bathrooms. Downstairs, there is a newly painted, large Laundry Room, and a HUGE carpeted Family Room/Office or fourth Bedroom with a door out to the side yard.

This one is gone, but we have more. Call me at 914-450-8883 and my team can help you find your best new nest.

I’m so glad you asked! If your budget is in the low 500’s, you might like a home like the one we just closed on Avis Court, a 3 bedroom 2 bath split on nearly 3/4 of an acre on a cul de sac. The final sale price was $513,500. Best of luck to my seller, a good human being and a friend.

As described in the MLS:

Move in condition front/rear split on a plum 3/4 acre cul-de-sac lot. Open concept in living area, with vaulted ceiling in the living room, faux mantel, and formal dining room off the kitchen. Appealing deck overlooks the spacious rear yard. You’ll love the view out of the wood Andersen windows. Lots of parking and 1 car attached garage. Front level has a family room and office, although there are possibilities for a media room or guest quarters. Good sized bedrooms on the upper level with ample storage base, and then you have the basement with storage that runs the length of the house.  Pride of ownership shows throughout, and the location and setting are unbeatable!

This one is sold but my team can help you find one of your own- call 914-450-8883 for more information.