Commentary July 2, 2012

Why This Capitalist Opposes Fracking

As I read the discussions online regarding hydrofracking upstate, I find the resulting polarization and pigeonholing to undermine the dialogue. I do not believe that people who are against fracking to be only tree-hugging left wingers, and I hold myself up as the counter point. My street cred as a free market capitalist is not half bad. I run my own company that I started in a spare bedroom in 2005, and have grown it to an enterprise that provides full and part time income to 32 people. And in a depressed industry like real estate, where government bailouts to brokers are unheard of and regulation the norm, that doesn’t happen by accident.

I am against hydrofracking.

One of the things you learn in business is that corporations are amoral. Not IMmoral- amoral. They are unencumbered by conscience. They simply have to abide by rule of law, and if the law doesn’t support more profits, then they seek to change the law, which is what we are witnessing now. I consider Governor Cuomo, who has earned my respect in other areas, to have failed protecting upstate’s long term well being in exchange for a percieved short term economic “upper”  fracking promises.

Another thing you learn in business is that when principals hide behind confidentiality or proprietary secret, as we are witnessing with the energy company’s refusal to divulge what exactly they’ll be putting in the ground forever, that they are often avoiding self incrimination. There was a time when asbestos was extolled by industry as the miracle compound. It was put in homes, schools and even hairdryers. It didn’t take decades to know asbestos could kill you, but it did takes decades to eradicate its use, and even then it took lawsuits to make a difference.

I sold real estate in Rochester, NY in the 1990s and the city blocks that suffered contamination by Eastman Kodak’s activities will be forever stigmatized, and rightly so. What Kodak did to property values, the environment and the unfortunate residents was a crime. I could cite example after example of Big Industry selling poison, such as  tobacco, lead paint and fast food to name just a few, where the argument in favor of slowly killing us was “jobs.” It is a short term obfuscation of an unsustainable economic model.

Hydrofracking is no different. The capitalist argument against hydrofracking looks past the immediate and the short term into what a sustainable model would be, and that would mean non fossil fuel alternatives that keep us from ruining the earth, the ground water, and the ecosystem. We have the technology to develop more sustainable power from wind, water (Croton Gorge anyone?), solar and renewable sources, but lack the economy of scale to do so because the established industries refuse to re-tool. This has to stop.

The reasons Asian companies are eating our lunch is because they have 100 year plans. We evaluate quarterly. Think about that the next time you see a Toyota. Or a Pontiac. We are seduced by the short term profit because our society’s short attention span doesn’t have the backbone or patience to think long term. And in the long term, there is no science that supports what fracking will do to us or our grandchildren.

Follow the money. The scientists who argue in favor of hydrofracking who are not on payroll are chicken’s teeth. The science is a secret because it is profitable to keep it so. The stuff dissolves rock-DUH. And we scream “jobs” in the short term while ignoring the many, many lessons of history at the risk of our own. We need to pull the bandaid off and devote our resources to energy that will sustain future generations and protect our environment, because if the ecosystem goes, we aren’t far behind.

The first line of the REALTOR code of ethics, adopted a century ago, states “Under all is the land.” We should listen.

Company News July 1, 2012

On Membership in Westchester Real Estate, Inc.

After I started the firm, began to transact business and became aware of who was who in the Westchester real estate market, I became aware of an entity known as Westchester Real Estate, Inc. After meeting some member brokers and seeing the familiar gazebo logo, I logged onto their website and read the following on the “about” section:

Westchester Real Estate, Inc. is a consortium of the most prestigious, reputable, independently-owned real estate firms in the northern suburbs of New York City, with affiliations throughout the entire NY metro area and beyond.  Our unique affiliation means you are connected with the best…the best companies, the best agents, the best service.

We selectively choose our member companies based on absolute professionalism, unwavering ethical standards, significant market share, and dedication to outstanding customer service. 

In perusing the member companies, it was almost intimidating. Multi generational, well established  firms opened for decades seemed to be the profile of the typical member firm. There I sat in my home office (my parents’ old bedroom) with a $50 used fax and tiny handful of agents. Someday…

Over the years I did business with virtually all the member firms, and in every single transaction I was dealing with a professional.

Today, July 1, 2012 is our first day of official membership in the consortium. “Someday” is today.

Obviously, the mission remains to always do a great job for our clients, or this loses its meaning.

I’ll refrain from more blathering, suffice to say that this is one of the few times I’ll say publicly that I miss my father and older brother, and wish they could be here to share this with me and Ann in person.

MarketMarket Statistics June 25, 2012

Note to Self: Check the Calendar, Stupid

A buyer I have been working with has told me that the choices in his price range have dried up considerably compared to years past when he was not ready to act. Another agent with whom I am working with on a deal in northern Westchester County has observed that inventory is down.

These are “anecdotal examples” of market conditions, but, like my gut feeling,  they are not scientific, nor are they statistics.

So, I dug back to one of my market reports from a year ago and started to compare the second quarter for Yorktown in 2011 to the second quarter this year. I expected inventory to be down and sales to be up. Instead, I found some peculiar numbers: 27 sales at a median price of $380,000 in Yorktown for 2011, and a mere 22 sales in the second quarter of 2012 at a median of $379,000. Worse, inventory was UP- 156 listings to 150.

The one piece of good news- actually, great news- is that the 44 pending sales this year tower over the 26 at the end of the second quarter least year.

Then, it dawned on me. We aren’t at the end of the second quarter yet. The second quarter ends June 30. This is June 25. And guess when there are a slew of closings? You guessed it, at the end of  the month, especially a month like June when school ends.  It would just be a smart thing, if I am going to compare time frames from different years, to make sure that, you know, the current year’s second quarter  is actually complete before I judge.

Extrapolating from the numbers thus far, the observations look like they’ll be correct. But I’ll wait until early July before I say so. Please excuse me while I drink some coffee and mutter to myself.

Commentary June 24, 2012

The Rite of Passage

About 2 years ago, I wrote a post entitled “You Aren’t in the Real Estate Business” about things that eventually happen to us in the industry that aren’t terribly happy rites of passage. It was a long list, and had the usual pitfalls of our industry- losing deals, foibles of dealing with the public, and other things that make us just a tad masochistic to do this for a living.

As a broker with a team that includes newer agents, it still kind of hurts to see a rookie go through one of these experiences, and just such a thing occurred to one of my newest agents yesterday. She had been working with a buyer for a number of weeks- phone calls, shwoings, emailing listings, picking my brain about how to handle their needs, and then she got the phone call. They bought a home with another agent.

It never occured to either one of us that they were dealing with another agent.
I wonder if those folks realize that unless they close with an agent they put through those rigors that the agent will never get paid for their efforts.

The details of the story are largely unknown to me, and we may never know all that occured when the buyers were not with us. They said it was a home they saw months before meeting my agent, although that really doesn’t make it OK- we still could have helped.  If a buyer walked into an open house and dealt with the listing agent back in March and nothing materialized, then got a phone call from that agent that the price was reduced, they could easily have said they would contact their agent and explore moving forward.

Or, they were simply playing the field, operating under the false assumption that using multiple agents would cast a wider net. That’s not terribly honorable, and doesn’t really work out so well for the consumer experience either, since the MLS database is the same marketwide. Some people just disappear; at least in this case we had a heads up.

Early in my career, I devoted an enormous amount of time to a family looking to buy their first home. They contacted me through a mailer I sent their apartment complex, I prequalified them with my mortgage contact and we helped them fix some credit issues so they would actually get a loan, and then we saw dozens of homes together over the months. On two occasions, we made offers that were accepted but fell through because of issues on the seller’s part. When the last one occured on a Friday, I arranged a monster day of showings for them on Saturday, putting everything else on the back burner. They called me that morning and said they were ill and couldn’t make it. The following day they walked into an open house and bought the place directly through the listing agent, who basically told me to jump in the lake when I contacted her. At that time, buyer brokerage agreements were rare.

I’ll never forget when the loan officer called me Monday and warned me that they applied for the mortgage on a home I didn’t sell them after all we’d been through. I’ll never know if the listing agent, who didn’t work for them, arranged the sort of deal they could have procured with true representation. I lost a sale, but I doubt they were ahead either.

What can you say? It happens to the best of us. Welcome to the real estate business.

 

Industry News June 21, 2012

On Being Included in the Zillow Agent Advisory Board

As anyone who knows me will attest, I have had my struggles with Zillow. I have always tried to be fair, but at times Zillow has frustrated me, and at times I have had to give them credit. In the past year, the world of brokerage has become more polarized about Zillow, with factions of companies ending syndication and decrying their data issues and pay model, and others, if not supportive of Zillow, certainly eyeing the anti-syndication crowd with skepticism.

The debate became more heated around the time that Abbott Realty Group in San Diego released their video explaining why they were ending syndication.  I felt dismay as accusations of dual agency and not looking out for the best interests of clients collided with lamentations about data accuracy and hijacking content. It was ugly, and remains so.

This past May, I decided to reach out to the folks at Zillow whom I know. I sent an email to CEO Spencer Rascoff, whom I first met at Raincamp in 2010, and Jay Thompson, their Director of Industry Outreach. I felt, that as both a paying customer in the Premier Agent program as well as a user of Diverse Solutions IDX, I could make some constructive suggestions about how to make peace. To his credit, Spencer did respond very earnestly, and what followed was a discussion that Mr Rascoff generously shared with other people on the Zillow team.

I’ll summarize some points.

  • The idea that a companies who are at odds with Zillow only want to engage in dual agency is a terrible argument.
  • Data accuracy is something that has to be tackled.
  • There has to be a way to reconcile the Zestimate with the agent community.
  • The complaint that paying Zillow for advertising is somehow coercive fallacious. A few short years ago, some clients would browbeat us into paying for print advertising. Advertising on Zillow is a fraction of those costs.
Earlier this month, Jay Thompson invited me to be a part of a new Agent Advisory Board (ZAAB). I took the invitation very seriously. I am Vice President of my MLS, so I had to ensure there was no confict of interest (there was not). I had to make sure I could uphold the policy of membership on the board, as well as devote the time to it that would be needed. And yesterday, I, along with 18 other professionals from around the country, was announced as part of the board.
My participation does not make me a shill, nor does it give me Jedi-like powers to make changes of my own fiat. But it does give me a voice, and I believe it better to strive to cause constructive change from within an organization than to lob disdain from the peanut gallery.
Recently, in a discussion about Zillow, I said the following:
Zillow is Star-child. It is as amoral as any other entity and pondering what to do with its powers. If Zillow does not yet have all the solutions how can we. To conclude we don’t want Z to exist just because no one-including Z themselves has come up with a way to make the numbers work for everyone is unfair.
Zillow is the biggest kid in the playground, and as such I think it wise to deal with them in as constructive and earnest a manner as possible. I am very honored to be chosen as part of the board. I do intend to make a difference, and I will go in believing that the folks at Zillow-good people you should know like Brad Andersohn, Sara Bonert, and Jay Thompson- want my input as much as I want to share it.
MarketMarket Statistics June 19, 2012

Are Prices Down and Sales up All Over Westchester?

In light of yesterday’s revelation of Ossining’s strange May, where median price dropped almost $60,000 but closings more than tripled compared to the prior May, I did a quick survey of other towns to see if the trend was anywhere else in the county. My thought about Ossining was that sales increased because prices dropped. It was a very “supply and demand” sort of conclusion. Was it the same elsewhere?  I surveyed a few other towns, and here are the results:

Peekskill
May 2011- 5 sales. Median price $340,000
May 2012- 3 sales. Median price $185,000
Peekskill bucked the trend ( Rough month too.) 

Mount Kisco/10549
May 2011- 6 sales. Median price $645,000
May 2012 – 9 sales. Median price $524,350
Mt Kisco followed the trend.  

White Plains
May 2011- 16 sales. Median price $540,000
May 2012- 7  sales. Median price  $600,000
White Plain followed the trend in the wrong direction. Trend Bucked.  

Eastchester
May 2011- 7 sales. Median price $572,000
May 2012- 5 sales. Median price $591,000 
Eastchester bucked the trend.  

Yorktown (excluding Lakeland schools)
May 2011- 12 sales. Median price $387,500
May 2012- 10 sales. Median price 342,250

Scarsdale
May 2011- 14 sales. Median price $1,918,831
May 2012- 20 sales. Median price $1,280,000 

Only two of the six random towns had sales increase with prices decreasing. However, 5 of the six places did have a predicable inverse relationship between sales volume and price (higher prices, fewer sales, lower prices, more sales). This was, of course not at all scientific, and both the number of towns and their respective transaction totals can’t be considered a representative sample. 

Don’t think for a minute that it is as bad as the three sales in Peekskill would suggest, nor do I believe for a second that home values in Scarsdale are down 30%. Every locale has its own trends and unique dynamic. All real estate is local. 

This is why you can’t rely on NAR, Case/Schiller or any other national index to inform you of how things are in your neck of the woods. When we read about prices plummeting in the sunbelt 3 years ago, we knew it was never that bad locally. True also, now that we are seeing that there are multiple bids in homes all over southern California we know it is not that good locally. As the numbers show, you can’t even predict what one town will do compared to another. The deeper you drill locally, the more things can vary zip code to zip code. 

I’ll repeat: All real estate is local. 

MarketMarket StatisticsSelling June 18, 2012

Ossining Real Estate Sales Up; Prices Down in May

The New Normal continues to evolve in Westchester real estate, as prices and transaction totals go batty in different directions. Ossining’s May results are fine example. According to the Hudson Gateway MLS data for May 2012, Ossining had a spike in closed transactions, but a steep decline in price compared to the same time period in 2011.

For May 2012, Ossining has 16 single family home closings at a median sale price of $313,500.
For May 2011, Ossining had only 5 single family home closings at a median sale price of $382,500.
There are currently 36 home under contract or pending sale, with a median asking price of $362,111.

The obvious conclusion is that once prices fell to a level that met with the public’s interest, that more buyers would come to the closing table. I cannot argue with that logic. For years, buyers have been sitting on their collective hands waiting for the prices to drop to a level they would be willing to act upon. In May, they acted 16 times. This is not the lowest median price for Ossining, but the 16 transactions is very healthy- you seldom see business triple.

With 36 homes under contract, it is safe to conclude that the trend will continue. The median asking price of $362,111 is certainly higher than May’s median, but that reflects the trend upward as starter homes sell earlier, enabling people to buy their move up home afterward. 137 home remain active and available, so consumers still have plenty of choices in their home search looking forward.

Overall, this is good news. lower prices have seldom been a surprise since the market declined 5 years ago. But a spike in sales is a rare occurrence, and speaks well of the market outlook as summer approaches.

CommentaryUncategorized June 13, 2012

A Retroactive Rebuke of Lower Merion and Radnor, PA Townships

It might seem a tad out of place for a platform centered on Westchester County, NY to even mention municipalities in another state. However, a question about landlord-tenant issues in another forum, and perhaps the early hour of this writing (5:48am, although this won’t be published until later today) have wiped away a few cobwebs and caused me to relive an old pain.

Often, when one becomes an adult and responsible member of society with a family, a business and civic responsibilities, they shed the discontents of their youth. For example, the year I turned 18, the state of New York raised the drinking age to 19. When I turned 19, it was raised to 21. I was incensed about this at the time. I hardly give it another thought today, and if I read that they were raising the age  to 30 tomorrow, I’d pause for a moment, notice something shiny, and then check on last night’s Yankee game box score. I no longer have a horse in that race.

But there are some things that linger.

I turn 45 next month. I run a successful business, have a family and a home, and I am a Vice President of one of New York’s largest Multiple Listing Services today. But at one time I was a pimple faced matriculated student at Villanova University in Radnor Township, Pennsylvania. The record shows that I earned a BA in English in 1989. I was 4 year member of the rowing team, a fraternity brother of Pi Kappa Alpha, a freshman orientation counselor, and overall what you might aptly term “a good kid.” I befriended other like minded “good kids,” and when our junior year arrived, we were summarily bounced from dorm life on campus because the University did not have enough housing for the full student body.

So what’s the big deal? You get an apartment off campus with your buddies and virtually walk to classes anyway, right? Not exactly. Villanova, PA was in the heart of what is known as the Main Line, an affluent row of suburbs on the Paoli Local that is analogous to the Metro North Harlem line that runs through the Westchester County’s sleepy suburban towns. It was not a “college town” like so many schools of higher learning inhabit. Campus was not surrounded by rathskeller dive bars, hoagie shops, apartments and used book stores. We were enveloped by wealthy suburban neighborhoods in Radnor and Lower Merion Townships with mansions walking distance from the quad. As you might imagine, student body and wealthy suburb mixed like oil and water.

The University couldn’t build housing fast enough, and the story was always that Radnor township’s zoning laws prevented the development that was needed. When you have over 2000 students needing housing in and around residential neighborhoods that lack the infrastructure to adequately meet the demand, conflict results. We heard anecdotal stories of drunk students urinating in bushes and other fairly typical incidents which caused tension between the University and the towns. The townships also made things worse by arcane ordinances that prohibited more than two unrelated people living under the same roof. Housing was expensive. Living alone or with one roommate was ridiculously pricey. No matter if you found a 3 bedroom apartment or a 2 bedroom that would easily house and park 3 people. The minute you unpacked you were illegal.

After our first condo didn’t work out toward the end of  junior year, my four housemates and I rented a colonial home in nearby Ardmore, Pa a few miles from campus. 5 people living in a good sized house is no big deal, and housing was not cheap. Three of us were engineering majors perpetually buried in books. All of us behaved. It did us no good. Lower Merion’s ordinance prohibited more than three unrelated people in one home, and so early senior year we were awakened by a Lower Merion town official at 5am and the house was searched. We were evicted by the town in a hearing, and had to move for a 3rd time in less than a year. We split up, and 3 of us ended up in what was known as the Brick House, as ramshackle dump that was once an unofficial fraternity house in an alley behind some businesses. It was a far cry from our first condo in Wayne. But it was a roof over our heads and we didn’t want to be evicted again. So we shut up and endured until graduation.

The incredulous feelings,  going to sleep not knowing where you were going to live, and the sense that the powers that be had it in for us remain with me still. Villanova could do nothing. They couldn’t build what they needed because the town stood in the way, and yet the town wouldn’t let us live off campus with any dignity either. It was a Catch-22 of enormous proportions, and it would be years until Villanova  developed West Campus and provided more housing. I remember standing at the corner of Ithan and Lancaster Avenues watching the locals in their BMWs and Mercedes at the light and wondering what I did to wrong them. I often wondered if the feelings I had at the time would remain when I was an adult with my own home.

They do remain.

Briarcliff Manor is home to one of the campuses of Pace University at what used to be Briarcliff College. There are mansions walking distance from the student union. I own a home in a community that is the socioeconomic clone of Radnor Township. I drive a BMW. I have been quoted in the New York Times and appeared on ABC World News. I have four small children. I am completely on the other side of the social table-in the housing industry at that, and I still feel that Radnor Township and Lower Merion Township were wrong. The lawmakers, town officials and enforcers may all be long gone and there may even be a kinder, gentler leadership in the respective governments now that more students finally live on campus, but I am still angry at how I was treated.

I have never had one problem with a Pace student, perhaps due in large part to the fact that the municipality and university were apparently on the same page about student housing. I have never had a Pace student piss in my bushes because they either live in a dorm or commute from home. Things got managed better here. The story of Danroy Henry, tragic and senseless as it is, could have occurred anywhere and had nothing to do with arcane blue law type housing ordinances.

I don’t know if Lower Merion or Radnor ever changed the laws or reached detente with Villanova once more housing was built on the old Morris Estate (now west campus), but there are hundreds if not thousands of my fellow students who, whether they were evicted or not, lived in some level of fear. Living in fear in these United States. My father won a Bronze Star in Korea after serving with merit in the Second World War, and his son had his rights violated by a vindictive, small minded government that couldn’t get out of its own way and live with a reputable university that has been there since 1842. Were the students and school at fault too? Sure. It wasn’t 100% black and white, but it started with terrible governing.

There were other events I won’t go into, like when my voter registration record conveniently disappeared when I went to vote in 1988 in Lower Merion. When I think about it, it is no coincidence that a huge part of my practice is short sales and serving people facing foreclosure. Nobody should stay awake at night worrying that they might lose their home.

Lower Merion and Radnor may be different today; I don’t know. And there are two sides to every story. But now that I live on what is the other side from being an undergrad, 24 years later at that, I believe that my classmates and I are owed an apology. I am no longer that student standing on the corner of Ithan and Lancaster. I am the homeowner in the car. I am a housing professional of some stature. And if the municipalities still pull this on any students today who may find themselves off campus today, a pox on their houses.

 

 

CommentaryMarket June 13, 2012

A Sign of Progress with Pepperoni

Today was one of those non-stop days from 9am until I got home at 9pm, and in retrospect I had damn few of these sorts of days in 2009. “Busy” in real estate is “good.” Not busy, as you might imagine, is the precursor to “not in real estate anymore.” I won’t bore you with all the details, but they included 2 accepted offers negotiated remotely from my car on the mobile phone, news of a closing on a tough file, the possible finding of another perfect place for a buyer, and the best part was a $1.75 slice of pizza.

I’ll explain. Around 6pm, prior to meeting some buyer clients I was covering for one of my agents, I got a little peckish and stopped for a bite. As you might imagine by the number of vowels in my last name, I did not get goulash. So there I was, waiting in line to get my slice of pizza and a coke (screw it, I don’t care what Bloomberg says, I wanted SUGAR in my drink). And I waited.

And I waited. It became clear to me that the two guys ahead of me either couldn’t choose what to get or they were holding the place up and I didn’t know it. Finally, a manager came and spoke with them.

“Where did you work before?”
“What days are you available?”

Lordy… if I had a hat I would have taken it off! I was witness to someone getting a job. Someone, before my very eyes in this economy, was getting hired! I hadn’t heard a conversation like that in years. I felt like handing out cigars or sending out announcements. I was the unsuspecting godfather of a new job being born. I returned to my car, food in bag, and half checked my wrist for a maternity ward band.

And then, I met two good folks who eagerly looked at 4 homes with me.

While a pizza joint hiring a dough slinger might be an unconventional economic indicator, in context with all the other things I am seeing lately, I think it was fitting. There is still shadow inventory, banks are still stingy, and we still have a ways to go in this market. There will still be days when three deals fall apart. But I am certain that today proved that we are past the nadir.

And just to prove that the angels agree, there was not so much as a drop of red sauce on my lightly colored shirt at day’s end.

#win.

Buying June 12, 2012

Friday Night at 9pm: Bad Time to Request a Saturday Showing

This past Friday evening, I was having my usual crazy start to the weekend, at my desk, nursing a Diet Coke, and figuring out the median price of homes in Chappaqua for the month of May, when the email came in.

We would like to see the house you have listed at XX Rd Saturday as close to noon as possible. 

I counted backwards from 10, and then the text came, because all email inquiries on our listings have an accompanying text alert so we don’t miss anyone. 2 minutes later, another email came from the same people. And the text. Sometimes that happens- maybe they clicked twice.

10 minutes later, another email to my inbox.

We still haven’t heard from anyone. Should we contact another agency? 

I checked my watch. Friday, 8:53 pm.

There is a temptation to scream into the pillow or fire off an email in response that says something to the effect of

News flash! Did you know agents work weekends and might already have our appointments set? Should we  throw the folks we already have appointments with to the curb just for you?

However, tact is the better way to do business. There are two kinds of people who make inquiries like this: Sincere people who don’t know all the nuances of our industry, and unreasonable types who go to a Yankee-Red Sox game in late September and complain about the crowds. Better to err on the side of the former until you know otherwise.

Real estate licensees do have our busy time on weekends, and we are often done filling our schedules for Saturday and Sunday by the end of the prior Thursday. While there is a small “on call” side to the business, we really do more by appointment, especially in a busy spring season on a weekend. Earlier in the week is better if you can only look on a weekend.

I explained this is a tactful way via email, and then after a brief a phone call, the folks understood graciously and we are all set for next Saturday. If we never sell them a house, we have educated the consumer.

Now if all of us in the industry could do that…