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If I were not seeing it with my own eyes I would not believe it. But after witnessing bidding wars on 2 of my own listings, one in Ossining and another in West Harrison, I have to say that the Spring real estate market in Westchester is stronger than I expected. It might be the pent up demand after 4 years of malaise, low rates, the simple societal adjustment to the new normal, or all of the above. But April’s numbers did show an undeniable improvement in a variety of ways.
In total, for April, 2012, there were 283 single family homes sales closed in Westchester at a median price of $550,000.
In the same period of 2011, there were 249 closings at a median of $535,000.
That is just under a 14% improvement in transaction totals and a 2.8% rise in median price.
Year to date, the numbers are almost as encouraging.
In the first 5 months of 2012, Westchester had 1014 closings at a median price of $521,250.
In the first 5 months of 2011, the county had only 971 closings at a median price of $550,000.
Median price is down slightly overall, but the public is buying more.
More good news: The number of homes under contract has spiked to 1239 properties under contract or pending sale, and the median asking price is $659,000. That makes sense; once the lower priced homes sell, “move up” buyers purchase more expensive homes. And that is what we are seeing. But even if we put the median price aside, the number of homes under contract is almost 300 deals more than last month. That tells me that April’s numbers were no anomaly, and that May could end up being an even stronger month.
Lastly, there are 4224 homes available in inventory, giving buyers a plethora of choices. That is still roughly 15 months of inventory. It remains a market slanted toward buyers, but a healthier market at that, and in rare cases, the sellers are starting to gain leverage. Time will tell if this strong Spring ushers in a recovery or is a temporary bump. Given the changes I see in buyer attitudes, we may see an uptick in consumer confidence and the seeds of a recovery.
Check out the available homes for yourself. Conditions may have finally hit the sweet spot where prices and buyer sensibilities have made a match.
Regarding Agents Returning From Hibernation
The details were unimportant except to point out that Centralized Showings, the company we use to set appointments for our listings, had the gall to ask this associate broker for her license number to verify her identity. She balked at this, and a big part of her message to me was that her license was not something she typically carried around with her. In looking her up on the MLS, the bulk of her career has apparently occurred prior to the real estate decline. She has not become acclimated with the New Normal like the rest of us who have been working in this environment since 2007 when the sub prime domino was the first to fall.
Some agents are not primary bread winners. They can go into hibernation when the market goes pear-shaped and return when the coast seems clear. The problem in 2012 is that when your experience is all with low-hanging fruit and not the current, more difficult climate, the return is not easy. And yes, that even reaches something as seemingly simple and mundane as setting up a showing. In January of this year, three boards merged to form our current Hudson Gateway Association. This caused some difficulty with 3rd party vendors who rely on membership databases, but the remedy, taking 3 minutes to verify your identity, is simple and harmless. Unless of course you are out of practice and you are still operating like it is 2005.
But the details are unimportant. The next thing that those of us in the industry have to be mindful of is that as the market levels off and improves in some areas, that part time and inactive agents will be returning to the fold with a frame of reference that is completely unfamiliar with the current landscape. And they will be neophytes about new mortgage requirements, short sales, and all the other obstacles that are another day at the office for those of us who have been around. They will get their sea legs under them at the expense of clients who are unaware that they have been primarily on the sidelines for years, as well as those of us who will be on the other sides of transactions with them.
Forewarned is forearmed. Beware the agent returning from hibernation if you are a consumer or an agent who may close a deal with one. As I tell prospective clients all the time, the operative question to ask an agent you are considering doing business with is what they have done the past 12 months. If they make a vague reference to Tommy John surgery or a pilgrimage to a Tibetan monastery, ask about the past 24 months. I wouldn’t want to undergo surgery with a doctor who hasn’t held a scalpel since 2009, nor would I want my life defended in court by an attorney who just returned from 3 years in a cabin. Real Estate transactions can have life changing consequences. There are some agents who have not been very active since 2007 or 2008, and they should be upfront about it.