If you are looking in or around Stamford Connecticut for your next home, here is an example of what $515,000 is in purchasing power. Last week we closed on this 2 bedroom townhome at 68 Hope Street in the small, charming Catalpa Terrace complex. The MLS description was as follows:
Conveniently located townhome condo in move in condition offering an unbeatable lifestyle at this price point. Completely modern kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and updated cabinetry. Spacious living room with dining area and sliders to balcony. An updated half bath completes the level. Upstairs you’ll love the vaulted ceiling with skylight, two good sized bedrooms, and a Jack and Jill bath with sink areas for each bedroom! Plenty of closet space. The lower level is a finished rec room with sliders to a patio. Oversized storage closet underneath the stairs. Utility area has laundry, sink and an extra commode. The entire space is heated and cooled with brand new state of the art split units, superior to the electric baseboards and wall units originally built in. Overall this is a move in, pleasing and updated townhome you’ll love!
The upstairs bath was unusual, with a common bath shower in between two lavatory rooms adjoining each respective bedroom. The home came with 2 assigned parking spaces as well. It was priced at $495,000, but due to multiple offers the final sale price was bid up. I thank the sellers for their entrusting me with the sale and for being so communicative and cooperative.
This one is gone, but we can help you find your next address. And yes, we cover Fairfield County as well and as extensively as we cover Westchester. Just call (914) 450-8883 and the team will take amazing care of you.
I just off the phone with a guy who initially sounded like a telemarketer, but claimed that he wanted me to list some acreage he owns about 90 minutes north of me to pay for an upcoming surgery. He must have done a little bit of homework, because he got the name right of the owner of the property. The only problem is that he claims to be the same guy that bought the parcel in 1972.
Well, that’s not the only problem. The actual owner of the property, meaning the guy who bought it in 1972, died about 10 years ago. Further, he was a public figure who received the Presidential Medal of Freedom Award. I’m certain that I was not speaking to him. And I wasn’t speaking to an heir.
I’m not exactly sure, but I think the crux of the scam is to do everything remotely, get the property listed under false pretenses, and phish the buyer’s good faith deposit once a transaction is promulgated. An awful lot would have to go right (well, wrong, depending on who you’re rooting for here) for this to work out for the scammer, because he’d have to bamboozle a listing agent, a buyer agent, a buyer, a victim seller’s attorney, and a buyer’s attorney. That’s an awful lot of bamboozle.
And yet, here we are.
A few weeks ago, one of my agents had to withdraw a listing for vacant land when it became clear that her “client” was not in fact the owner of the property. In the past several months I have spoken to at least 2 other agents with the same story. What a colossal waste of time.
Here were the red flags:
When I answered the phone, the person said “Hi Philip, how are you?” which has been said to me exactly 0 times in my first contact with anyone who was not a telemarketer.
He claims to have looked me up on Zillow and been so impressed with my track record that I was the right guy for the listing. That sounds too good to be true. I’m certainly proud of my track record, and my Zillow profile isn’t shabby, but I’ve never sold anything in that market.
Anyone old enough to buy property in 1972 would qualify for Medicare, not have to sell land to pay for surgery. And I know that Medicare only pays for 80%.
H was calling from a Florida number, and the owner address was nowhere close to there.
Basically, nothing added up during the call, and in my search afterward it took about 10 minutes to ascertain that this was bogus.
Now, I am trying to reach the family that owns this land to be wary of any sign going up on their land.
Buying a home can be stressful. I mean, look at the picture: the largest expenditure of most lives, housing, borrowing, lawyers, mortgages, down payments, contingencies, credit, taxes, closing costs, monthly payments, inspections…does any of that sound soothing? Another decidedly NOT soothing word is “decisions,” and consumers have to make quite a few of them throughout the process, which only adds to the potential anxiety. It is human nature to defer a decision until it’s absolutely needed.
One thing that consumers understandably link to their decision process is a favorable financial picture. That also makes perfect sense. Save your money. Improve your credit. Get educated. These are things you can influence. One piece of kryptonite to home ownership is when a consumer defers action until something outside their financial picture is optimized. That is, again, understandable, but absent specific knowledge, it can be self defeating. The practice I’m referring to is known as timing the market.
In the Great Recession, when the median price of a single family home in Westchester County fell below $500,000, I saw quite a few potential buyers lose out on great opportunities because they wanted to time their purchase with the exact moment the market bottomed out. The problem for them, of course, was that no clairvoyance exists to tell you exactly when that would be.
The same behavior exists today with mortgage rates. Upon occasion, we hear from would -be buyers that they want to wait until rates fall to a certain level before they buy. Their housing needs clearly call for a purchase, but they want to hold off.
There are two reasons why timing the market in this way is an inadvisable strategy.
First, you need a crystal ball to predict when rates will hit that arbitrary magic optic. Even seasoned professionals smirk at that idea.
Second, and more importantly, this is one of those cases when would-be Westchester County homeowners make plans and God laughs. Let’s suppose that you wait until rates fall below 6.5%, and at that moment you are ready to go. That’s great! So are 100 other people with the same brilliant idea, and the competition for a home, which is already fierce in the Hudson Valley, becomes even more cutthroat.
There aren’t enough houses for sale to accommodate the additional demand.
The amount of time it will take to find a seller that will go to contract with you get even longer.
Home prices get bid up even higher with the stiffer competition, nullifying any savings derived from lower rates.
The typical buyer will end up closing more than 6 months after they entered the market, paying more than they expected, often settling for the prevailing rate at that time because most people won’t invest that much effort and then just walk away.
“But Phil,” you might say, “When rates fall more developers will start building.”
That’s true. Builders love low rates. But unless that developer is a witch or a genie, the new homes won’t magically appear in a blink or nose wiggle. In most of Westchester and a growing chunk of Putnam and Rockland, a few spot builds might spring up within 6-9 months, but actual subdivisions could take a year or two, possibly more.
So, if the picture in your head is that of rates falling in March and by April or May you’re in contract on a house that meets your needs at the price you assume will reflect prices right now, I’ve got bad news: that is highly, highly unlikely.
Here’s how you time the market the right way: when your housing needs call for a new home, you move. The reason is simple; this isn’t simply a financial instrument you’re transacting, it is your shelter. You can’t live in your interest rate. You can only live indoors (far more creature comforts). A home is first and foremost shelter. It does behave in ways like an investment does, but it’s the only investment where you reside. Yes, lower rates and lower payments are nice, but they don’t occur in a vacuum. When rates fall and inventory is not abundant, the dynamics of supply and demand are unforgiving.
As my father, a corporate controller for decades, wisely said many times in the 80’s when rates were above 15%, the rate was secondary to the affordability of the payment. If you can afford the payment and the property matches your housing needs, your family will benefit far more than from a desirable optic on a mortgage statement. The north star for buyers should always be housing needs first. Subordinating that to reverse engineering numbers to behave a certain way on a spreadsheet is ill advised and virtually never works out. Quality of life is always better when you meet your housing needs first and are savvy about refinancing when rates come around.
If you are in the market for a 4 bedroom, 3 bath colonial, this property would have been for you. Set on .8 acres, it backs up to Ryder Park in the town of Ossining. While technically a 1966 build, another home was previously built on the lot and the original fireplace and mantel were preserved in this structure, giving it quite a unique family room. Unlike most center hall colonials, it has a full bedroom and bath on the first level. The main suite upstairs has two closets and the remaining two bedrooms are a good size. Open concept kitchens weren’t the rage in the 60s, so this was ahead of its time in that respect too. The full walkout basement leads to the 2 car garage, and the back basement door takes you to an amazing multi-deck rear yard with-count ’em, THREE large decks with 2 levels.
Given that the rear yard overlooks the park and faces west, the sunsets here are pretty awesome. Location is no small thing, and 45 Morningside checks plenty of boxes for proximity to parks, shopping, highways, and nearby Millwood. It has more bells and whistles, such as a great formal dining room with huge windows viewing the back yard, a large shed, and a brand new septic tank, but I think you get the picture. It did sell for over asking with multiple bids. That’s the market we are in.
This one is gone, but we can help you to find home that is perfect for you. Just call or message (914) 450-888 or email me at jphilip@jphilip.net and the team will take great care of you!
Many years ago I was representing a buyer client in their purchase of a home in Westchester County. We found a listing in Cortlandt that appeared to check all the boxes, but Mrs. Buyer Client had something last minute come up and I saw it with Mr. Buyer Client only. He loved the place and asked me to submit an offer. I asked about his wife seeing the home before we started throwing numbers around, but he assured me that it was fine. I was skeptical. I should have advised him against it. I did not.
The offer was accepted.
They did not buy the house.
When she saw it soon afterward, it was not fine. I could have predicted this, but sometimes folks have to experience something firsthand to learn it. All decision makers should see a property before making an offer. Luckily, this was a pretty strong buyer market at the time, and they had plenty of options afterward. They ended up buying in Rockland county.
Fast forward to 2024, and a seller client got an offer on their home, and chose to accept it. Then, the buyer agent mentioned to me that one of his clients had not yet toured the home.
The sellers rescinded their acceptance. They engaged another buyer, and in this market sellers do often have the luxury of multiple offers. I do feel kind of bad for the first people, but getting into a contract with a party where not everyone walked through is irresponsibly risky. As I have often said, the purchase and sale of real estate is the largest transaction of most peoples’ lives. The margin for error should be minimized wherever possible. For a seller to lose a week or two on market with a 1-legged prospective transaction is a grave mistake that should be avoided like the plague. Timing, optics, stress, and many other factors can have this cost the seller quite a bit of money, and that is contrary to their agent’s job.
The risks are just as bad on the buyer side, and in this instance the representative should have advised the client to get everyone in to ensure the efficacy of the deal.
Sometimes the decision makers aren’t even going to live there, such as a parent who is helping financially. Regardless, if they are involved in the meeting of the minds, they should walk through the property. Sometimes there are extraordinary circumstances, such as pandemic restrictions or a spouse deployed overseas in the military. Those are rare exceptions in this market. I’d be curious as to how often this happens in other markets where military deployment is more common. Since this was a straightforward situation for my clients, the path was clear. There is simpy too much financial risk involved not to follow all best practices.
Inventory may be historically low, but quality options are still out there. A good example is this awesome cape we just sold on behalf of a long time relationship seller client in White Plains, NY. 33 Prospect Street is a 4 bedroom home in a quiet neighborhood but only a few hundred yards from downtown White Plains. That is some seriously awesome location convenience. It has a big, comfortable front porch, a fenced rear yard, a garage, a lush green lawn and wonderful landscaping, and I haven’t even described the interior yet!
Like many homes in the area, it is a pre-war build (our best estimate in the 1920s; building records were meticulous except that). It was been in the same family since the 1940s, as as a multi-generational home that had never been on the market since Joe DiMaggio played center field for the Yankees it is a rare offering. The kitchen is pretty large, there’s a formal dining room, a comfortable living room with fireplace, and 2 bedrooms with a Jack and Jill half bath in between them. Upstairs has another 3 rooms and a full bath. It also has a full walkout basement, off street parking, and charm oozing from every angle. It went pretty quickly and I’m quite grateful for my longtime friend Julie for the referral and trust. It was listed for $725,000 but sold for well over that with multiple bids.
This one is gone, but we have more. Just call or message me at (914) 450-8883 and the team can help you find another one that is for you.
I am paraphrasing the great Yogi Berra when I say that predicting the future is easy, but getting it right is a bit trickier. Many of my colleagues have offered their prognostications in a market that is the perfect storm of black swans, judicial actions, economic uncertainty, and so many competing interests that there doesn’t appear to be any easy fix for the professional challenges we all face. In the face of all that, I am 100% certain that everything I predict will be accurate.
Here we go.
In 2025, the vast majority of humanity will continue to prefer living indoors to other alternatives. That means that virtually everyone we come into contact with will be worth conveying our value as an advocate when the time comes for them to change their address. The timeframes may be longer between moves, but it is still going to be essential that we remain top of mind by being a helpful resource.
In 2025, Real Estate will continue to be the largest transaction of most people’s lives, as well as their biggest asset. That also means that real estate professionals will continue to be absolutely necessary, because transacting the largest asset of your life as a DIY project will still be ill-advised.
3rd party industry entities that rely on agents for their revenue like the Zillow group and Costar will further distance themselves from disintermediation because they know this business is far harder than it looks.
NIMBYs will continue to vociferously object to new development, and the 7 million housing unit deficit the USA faces will not shrink, and likely increase. I include local municipal governments in that number, who have passed ever more restrictive zoning laws to artificially engineer their communities to be insulated from any departure from status quo. Any displacement that causes their own sons and daughters to not be able to afford to live where they grew up will be dismissed as not wanting to work hard.
People with their nose buried in legal theory will continue to deny that real estate broker fees are set by market forces, and market forces alone. I have been active in the field continuously since 1996 and I have never seen any model that offers better results for less money. I’ve also watched an elephant graveyard grow, populated by those who attempted. And they didn’t die because their competition conspired to marginalize them. We weren’t even paying attention to them. That will not change.
Average commissions will not go down and in many sectors may increase. This is the lesson of History. According to data fromRealTrends, broker commissions have had a not-so-curious inverse relationship with the ease or difficulty of the housing market since 1991. Simply put, average commission has grown in harder markets and lowered in “hot” markets. This is because when the going gets tough, consumers place more value in the skillset of their agent.
Buyers will continue to fund all proceeds distributed at closings. The sellers (or their attorney or title company) will still continue to write the checks that create the optic of the seller paying, but every cent comes from the buyers. Buyers will eschew paying anything like a broker fee separately, and prefer to finance it from proceeds as they always have.
More trees will die. As government and judicial intervention continues, the industry will adapt, yielding more paperwork. Fair housing exposes in the news, lawsuits and Department of Justice actions, and other adverse occurrences will be the catalysts for more forms and disclosures for agents to present to consumers in order to transact business. At current count, my agents have to present consumers with NY State Agency disclosures, fair housing and anti discrimination disclosures, audio recording statements, lead paint for the majority of our housing stock, and representation agreements that are close to 16 total pages. That does not include the mandated Property Condition Disclosure Statements that are now required from sellers. This also does not include co-ops, which have enormous paperwork involved on top of every other one mentioned. I’m not lamenting it, only predicting it.
Uninformed, tone deaf people will decry real estate as a poor investment. They will cite stocks, mutual funds, and other securities without acknowledging that these instruments do not furnish their owner with any housing. You cannot live in your 401k. It’s too drafty. Real estate may behave like an investment, but it is first and foremost shelter.
Admittedly, these are not bold predictions, and as a matter of fact some of them are tongue in cheek observations about human nature. However, they also contradict many of my colleagues’ conspiracy theories, especially about third party websites. No matter what changes in the real estate and housing space, agents and brokerage will still play an important, pivotal role in representing clientele. As long as people buy and sell property, brokerage and the expertise that comes with it will be something consumers want, need, and will pay for.
I’m a NY Giants fan from way back. I remember when Fran Tarkenton was the quarterback and the futile 1970s when the team stunk. Just about every guy I know has a team they follow, and I’ll share with you some dots I connected back when the Giants were winning their last 2 Superbowls.
When a New York team is heading to the playoffs, open house traffic is down because people are home Sundays watching the games. When the Giants and Jets are having a bad season, which is sadly common these days, open house traffic is higher because the fanbase gets disconnected.
I don’t see the same connection with baseball because they don’t play once a week on Sundays.
But this NFL local team connection is uncanny.
I love my Giants, but since both New York teams are awful this season, expect open houses to be even more crowded this season.
This is an incredibly tangential and unrelated economic housing market indicator, but I swear it is accurate.
Everyone lives indoors. I share this with my team fairly frequently in our weekly training, and while it’s always good for a smile, the facts are that our shelter needs don’t change with election maps unless you yourself just got elected to something and have to relocate to Washington DC.
If you are expecting twins and need more bedrooms for your housing needs, that’s not going to change if Donald Trump is elected president.
If you are an empty nester and considering a 55 and over community, you aren’t going to wake up at age 39 if Kamala Harris is elected. Especially you, Mr Benny.
The real matter when people want to delay a decision until after an event like an election or a Federal Reserve announcement is that human being are not comfortable with making decisions, and that includes me. But the reason to move should be anchored to one thing: your housing needs.
I grew up in an idyllic post war neighborhood that was built in the 1950s. It was a no through traffic street, and we’d play in the road. We rode our bikes, hiked in the nearby woods, and pet strange cats. I had no earthly idea what interest rate my parents paid on the mortgage, and I didn’t care. I had a happy childhood. My dad was an accountant and had an MBA from New York University thanks to the GI Bill. I heard him many times in the 80s discuss the crazy double digit interest rates with my mother, and he never waivered from the view that rates didn’t matter, payments did.
I’ll restate again:
If FDR rose from the dead and was elected to a 5th term, you’d still need to live somewhere with the same bedroom count as you need now.
If the Federal reserve is making an announcement next week, know that financial institutions have already baked in the next 6 Fed announcements into current rates.
I’m all for clever. But don’t interfere in your own life by being an armchair economist. Move when your housing needs indicate it, and stay put when you are happy where you are.
If I hadn’t gone through this myself with my own mother I doubt I would write about it. I do think that my (and my brothers’) experience is worth sharing for those who are considering this as an option.
First, it is worth noting that getting old is good fortune. Not all people get to live well into their 80s or 90s, and my mom made it to 88.
It’s also worth noting that there are lots of reasons to consider assisted living beyond one’s house being too much for them to manage. But let’s tackle the obvious reasons first.
The expense of maintaining a home for a senior who lives alone and is on a fixed income is high no matter where you live, but in places like Westchester County, it can be prohibitive. Assisted living sure isn’t cheap either, but when you add up the maintenance, utilities, upkeep, taxes, and all the other costs associated with a typical single family home, the math may often point to a place that is more of a one stop shop.
The physical strain of a single family home is also a consideration. Stairs. Lawncare. Taking out the garbage. Grocery shopping. Even driving can be a challenge at a certain point where the physical demands of living alone strain the quality of a person’s life.
Socialization. Once my mother reached a certain age, day to day living became lonely. She had long since retired. Her circle of friends was shrinking by the year. Her access to church, shopping, and other former backbones of her social life and autonomy became nonexistent save for the driving favors of me and my brothers.
For our family, the physical, mental and financial arrows all pointed to a significant need for change. My mother needed to make new friends. She needed help with her meals. She could no longer drive and couldn’t do as much for herself as she once could. Moreover, we couldn’t stay on top of the things we once took for granted, like making sure she didn’t eat expired perishable food or experience difficulty procuring and taking her prescription medications.
It’s kind of heartbreaking to see a person who was once a dynamic career woman lose her ability to care for herself the way she should. Even bringing my kids to see her was challenging, because her space was no longer toddler-friendly.
It’s also tough for some people to ask for help, especially for basic things like a broken toilet, a leaky faucet, or a new light bulb. There were times when I’d spend the first half hour of a visit addressing those very things- throwing rotten food away, refilling prescriptions, and fixing small household things that she was too bashful to ask for help with.
When the decision was made, my brothers and I all discussed the state of affairs with my mother, and she agreed that the quality of her life would be better if she didn’t have so much on her plate. She had spent winters in Texas with my older brother, but when he passed away we had to sell that house. The agent we dealt with, Tina Bertucci, was excellent. What is done with the primary residence once assisted living becomes the permanent arrangement is where a good real estate agent is worth their weight in gold.
The timeframe and preparation for selling the primary residence is a big part of where an agent matters. It’s not always easy to clean out decades of possessions and memories from a home, even if a senior has moved out for good. They often feel that they should have a say is how the contents of the house are dispensed with, and deservedly so; that’s their stuff.
For my mother, having her meals taken care of and being around other people with similar interests was a big game changer. She had always been a bit of a pack rat, and we were surprised that for a majority of her things, out of sight was out of mind. She wasn’t nearly as opposed to throwing out, donating, and otherwise removing things she no longer needed. The new reality of never missing a medication, never having to do dishes or drag a big garbage can out to the curb, and dozens of other “little things’ to the rest of us made her later chapters in life better.
For the past 7 years, I have been a Senior Real Estate Specialist, or SRES. The designation did teach me quite a bit, but it was my experience with my mother that makes this more personal than any other professional designation I have. Moving is a big deal for anyone; sunsetting a home and making a lifestyle change for someone in their autumn years is considerably more.
The big question to ask when considering assisted living is fairly simple. Will this improve the quality of life for the person? That doesn’t fully take into account the pain of change, the adjustment or the new challenges. They will always be baked in and there’s no way to sugarcoat that difficulty. But if the day to day quality of life for a person is such that they are unable to truly care for themself and assisted living would improve their day to day quality of life, then it should be explored sooner rather than later.
I think I speak for legions of other real estate licensees when I say that our involvement in this chapter of someone’s life is something we take very seriously, and we bring with us a significant amount of empathy, compassion, and patience.
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If I hadn’t gone through this myself with my own mother I doubt I would write about it. I do think that my (and my brothers’) experience is worth sharing for those who are considering this as an option.
The Latest Real Estate Scam – Be Careful Out There
I just off the phone with a guy who initially sounded like a telemarketer, but claimed that he wanted me to list some acreage he owns about 90 minutes north of me to pay for an upcoming surgery. He must have done a little bit of homework, because he got the name right of the owner of the property. The only problem is that he claims to be the same guy that bought the parcel in 1972.
Well, that’s not the only problem. The actual owner of the property, meaning the guy who bought it in 1972, died about 10 years ago. Further, he was a public figure who received the Presidential Medal of Freedom Award. I’m certain that I was not speaking to him. And I wasn’t speaking to an heir.
I’m not exactly sure, but I think the crux of the scam is to do everything remotely, get the property listed under false pretenses, and phish the buyer’s good faith deposit once a transaction is promulgated. An awful lot would have to go right (well, wrong, depending on who you’re rooting for here) for this to work out for the scammer, because he’d have to bamboozle a listing agent, a buyer agent, a buyer, a victim seller’s attorney, and a buyer’s attorney. That’s an awful lot of bamboozle.
And yet, here we are.
A few weeks ago, one of my agents had to withdraw a listing for vacant land when it became clear that her “client” was not in fact the owner of the property. In the past several months I have spoken to at least 2 other agents with the same story. What a colossal waste of time.
Here were the red flags:
Basically, nothing added up during the call, and in my search afterward it took about 10 minutes to ascertain that this was bogus.
Now, I am trying to reach the family that owns this land to be wary of any sign going up on their land.