While I never intended to take a formal break from writing, one day a guy wakes up and sees that he hasn’t posted an update since August. It wasn’t planned; nothing bad happened to me. I have just always felt that I would never “force it,” and I had nothing to say for a while. More accurately, if I did have something to say, I jotted a few notes for the day when I’d actually have the time to do it justice. And so here I am, hunting and pecking again.
While I took off from writing, Lord knows I didn’t take time off from working. Quite the contrary- things have progressed such that my return post tonight will get you up to speed on all the news around here. I have been busy.
First things first: Business is up. Year to date, transactions total is up 41% over the same period in 2012. Dollar volume closed is up 83%. You read that right- we have closed nearly double the dollar volume in 2013 that we closed last year for the same period. That keeps a broker busy.
The team is growing, in more ways than one. Entering 2013, we had about 32 licensed agents with the brokerage. A handful hung up their licenses, but we’ll hit 40 associates by the end of the year because we have more than replaced them with some excellent, talented professionals who have joined the firm.
J. Philip Commercial Group, LLC is born. My partner in crime, associate broker Jenn Maher, is a commercial specialist. In looking at the landscape of the local market, we felt that there was an opportunity to do more than just take on some commercial business. We saw an opening for a stand alone brokerage we can run together that does commercial business exclusively. And that’s just what we did. J. Philip Commercial Group will open in Mahopac on January 4, 2014. You don’t start a new company lightly. We saw a confluence of opportunity and our own resources, planned thoroughly, and we expect good things.
We have an REO division. Associate broker Michael Fradianni is our new REO manager, in charge of the sale of Bank owned forecosures. This is an exciting development. Michael is a great guy and has tremendous experience in this very specialized field.
914Rentals.com is almost out of beta. We have some agents in the firm who have asked to start a rental division, and work has begun in earnest. It will be up and running by the end of the fourth quarter of this year.
2014 MLS President. After 4 years of serving as Vice President of the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service, I have been confirmed as 2014 President. I look forward to serving my colleagues in this capacity, and I hope to make a difference in what is a changing industry.
Other good things are in the pipeline and until they are solidified I will refrain from making any formal announcement. Suffice to say that much of our growth is fueled by good talent joining the firm, and we have been approached by some great people about expansion in the form of branch offices and even a property management company. You don’t dive into these things without good planning, so until arrangements are made concrete I’ll leave you with that teaser.
So yeah, I’ve been busy, and haven’t had much time or inclination to write as I have worked on these things. However, I was inspired to write tonight, and I expect to do so again very soon.
A Tale of Two Tweets: AOL Real Estate Schools Forbes
I follow both Forbes and AOL Real Estate on Twitter. I have always viewed Forbes as the standard of excellence in financial journalism, but in my view, this morning they got schooled by AOL in responsible reporting. Both linked to recent stories on the real estate market on Twitter this morning, and both could not have reported things in a more polar opposite manner. According to Forbes,
It was as if AOL was reporting about real estate in another planet:
Both reports are within a few business days of each other and address the June 2013 market. Why the different conclusions? More importantly, who is right?
I believe that Forbes dropped the ball. Real estate is a seasonally cyclical market. Any period is evaluated responsibly by comparing it to the same period the prior year. You don’t compare bathing suit sales, for example, from December to July. And you certainly don’t compare retail sales in February when returns are high to the crazy period in December around the holidays. You compare apples to apples.
Forbes was factually accurate in reporting that June sales were down less than half a percentage point in June 2013 from May 2013. But their conclusion, that the market is “losing steam,” is misleading, because the spring market always tails off as summer comes because of market cycles, just as retail sales peak in December and tail off in February.
AOL made the accurate call. In responsibly comparing June 2013 to June of 2012, they tell the real story: Sales are up almost 40% from the same time last year. That does not speak to a softening market in my opinion, it speaks to a market that is still undeterred from the rate hike and may in fact still be too hot.
I’m actually surprised that Forbes would blow it like that. Who compares May to June? I have spoken with my share of real estate reporters, and by and large they understand the market cycle and how statistics can be interpreted. Forbes, of all media outlets, should know better.
AOL Real Estate 1, Forbes 0.