Tonight was the installation party for the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors. Executives and directors of both HGAR and the Empire Access MLS (EAMLS) were sworn in for 2012, along with drinks, dinner and dancing. This will be my 3rd term as MLS Vice president, and it doubled as date night for me and Ann. 

One of my agents took the initiative to attend, and being a newer agent, she took it all in with great interest. It was a chance to be in a social atmosphere, but of course the chat always veers toward business. Barbara, my agent, brought up a deal she is about to have clients sign contracts for on a condo worth over $700,000. Even in Westchester, that is pretty good, and I told her so. 

She kidded me “You blew it by giving me those buyers!” and we had a giggle about that. I explained that I actually didn’t blow it- she made the sale. Had I taken it myself, not only would I parhaps not make the sale, but it would take me away from running the company. 99% of buyers are given to the agents like her, and my efforts have to be more toward listings and overseeing our growing team of 25 agents. That is how we are building the company.

If I were to cherry pick high dollar buyers and throw the scraps to the team, I’d lose. Not only would it sow discontent with the team, it would take my eyes off the ball and the plan which has enabled us to progress these past few years. When I am running around with one buyer, I am being an agent. I have to be a broker and get more buyers to my agents- not keep them for myself. When my team wins, I win. I remember my first boss out of college in another industry telling me “Rich people cash big checks, truly wealthy people write them.” I never  forgot that. 

If she keeps getting accepted offers like this one, I am only too happy to blow it more often. 

Month by month, I have watched the 2011 Westchester Real estate market in comparison to the same month in 2010 to see how we’d stack up. Would values rise? Would transaction totals improve? 2011 started out behind the curve compared to 2010, but my theory was that 2010 started out artificially high due to the housing stimulus which ended at the end of April 2010. Going into November, it looked like we’d at least catch up to 2010 if we could hold serve in the 4th quarter. 

We did not hold serve. As a matter of fact, the 4th quarter of 2011 was behind that of 2010 by over 40 transactions and over $50,000 in median price, which was a very disappointing finish. I have my theory about that, but first the numbers:

In 2010, a total of 4018 single family homes were sold in Westchester at a median price of $630,000.
In 2011, a total of 3839 single family homes were sold in Westchester at a median price of $600,000.

Overall, transaction totals were down 4%.
Overall, median price was down 5%.

While these are not cataclysmic declines, they do speak to the malaise that continues to dominate the housing market. Moreover, they do point to 2010 being somewhat of a dead cat bounce after the nadir of 2009, when only 3358 homes sold at a median price of $580,000. A “dead cat bounce” is a brief bounce up not unlike a “dead cat” bouncing after impact with the terra firma. 

The good news: We are indeed up from the lowest point.
The bad news: The market remains flat. And that will most likely be normal for the foreseeable future. 

So why did we trip over the finish line? What contributed to the poor 4th quarter when so many forces would want to close out the year, and the pipeline was swollen with homes under contract? 

The pipeline was swollen with homes under contract. It still is, with almost 700 homes under contract or pending sale. Here is what I wrote in November:

October sucked. The sad thing isn’t that buyers aren’t buying. They just can’t get to the closing table for a variety of reasons. The data on pending sales shows a ton of deals on the 1-yard line that can’t get into the end zone. 

…

I hate to be right, but we still have 674 deals under contract or pending sale at that same median price of $499,000. 190 of them are pending, meaning they should close in the next week or two. But they won’t. 

And that is exactly what happened. Between short sales that weren’t approved or mortgages that didn’t get commitment or clear to close, the pending deals killed the recovery in vitro. 

Until we see a commitment on the lenders part to part with their delinquent loans via short sale and an equal commitment to loaning money without borrowers having to regain their virtue while standing on their head spitting nickels, the market will sputter. 

Consider this: Two weeks into 2012, we are down 45 sales and almost $100,000 in median price. That’s not a big sample, but it’s not encouraging either. 

I’d rather be a buyer than a seller! 

This home we just listed in Port Chester was appraised a few years ago at over $500,000. It is now on the market for $360,000. 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, fireplace, garage, den, 1st floor laundry, and 2400 square feet. Not bad. Now THAT is a buyer’s market. 

To take advantage of the low prices and rates, get yourself a free Listingbook account and search the MLS like an agent. 

What is market share in real estate? 

Market share could mean percentage of closed transactions in a given area. 
Market share could mean the percent of closed dollar volume in a given area.
Market share could be the amount of inventory for sale in a given area. 

At around 11am today, market share took on a different meaning. Even though I am based in Westchester County, I have three listings in Highland, New York in Ulster County. And as a working real estate broker with a family, there are times when the best way to balance things out is to multitask: we pile the kids in the car and have them come on a business-related trip. It could be to put up a sign, install a lockbox, or open a door for someone. I had a little bit of everything today. And once I was finished with my brief Sunday morning appointment, it was made known to me by my beloved that our children were in need of, um, facilities. 

Our little blessings are 9,8,7 and 4. Taking them to a restaurant is not fun. And we’re a solid hour from home and hearth. Ann suggested perhaps heading back our listing that I was just in, but it was winterized; you never use the bathroom of a winterized house. What to do? 

But wait! I have other listings in this town! And one, whose owner I just spoke to on Friday, was close by. The owner was out of town for the weekend, so I gave her a quick call. A teacher and a lovely woman, she laughed heartily and gave her porcelain blessing. The kids were on the their best behavior, I checked on my listing, and the drive home was devoid of panic or bladder-driven drama. 

So that’s not a bad litmus test. If you are in a town and you have a choice of three clients to call for a little help if nature calls, you’ve got yourself a little bit of market share. 

Incidentally, the house we were in was pretty awesome: a pre- war Victorian with amazing charm and woodwork- here is the link to see the photos on Homespotters. 1 Tillson Ave Highland, NY, 12528

No one has asked me to, but I have taken down the post on the Hoax. I think I had a right to be critical of the way they handled this in Seattle, and I do think that we are owed an apology, but I also feel that the passions stirred are not going in a constructive direction. The point has been made. I would ask that all 20+ people who reblogged the post put it into draft. 

We all have our own timetable and criteria on what the right thing to do should look like, and I held the staff to a standard of my own out of a frustration that I was both in the dark and an impression that nothing more would be done. I’ll trust that the right thing will be done and live with the decisions made by AR. 

Little in this world looks exactly as we see it. For example, some have asked me if Melina Tomson’s dissenting comment bothered me, and you should know that Melina and I are friends and like each other quite a bit. Well, I like her. My friends can tell me anything. 

Going forward, what we should do is re commit to being good to each other. We should welcome new members and exchange ideas. We’ve made our point here, and let’s allow the wheel to turn and trust Niki Bob and Kerrie. I would never disable comments but I will delete any meanies. 

To be clear, we have a right to be pissed and we have a right to a straight story. But now we should give the staff the room to do their job unencumbered by any agenda other than the mission of the platform. Back to work. 

As a matter of fact, whoever writes, in the next hour, the most hyper local weltanschauung empowering posts with the nicest pictures wins 50,000 points and an iPad. Ok, 5000 points and a calculator. Hold that thought. 

I remember the conversation like it was yesterday, even though it was 1997 or 1998. The typically sweet, warm and cordial client and I were discussing our next move on a purchase offer, and I was advising them against what struck me as making a rash response. “Well if you don’t agree, Phil,” she said “Maybe we should just call the listing agent and deal with him directly.” It was out of character for this person, over the top, out of the blue, and hostile. And it was also very temporary. Everything worked out fine, but it made me appreciate that the stress of a real estate transaction can bring out some serious passions in people. That’s just how it has always been.

Stress can make a person cross-eyed crazy. 

That was 14 or 15 years ago in a healthy economy at lower prices. 

Now…add the shadow of foreclosure to the mix, a recession, and a terribly depressed housing market and you’ve got yourself a real party. Now we are talking 3-ring circus, half a bottle of vodka won’t calm me down stress. 

My job as a broker is to diffuse the stress and be the voice of reason. That’s not always easy. Take the lady in my example back in the 1990’s. If she were buying a short sale and dealing with stressed out homeowners facing foreclosure and financial crisis, it would be like throwing gas on an already roaring fire. 

The thing that all buyers should understand is that what might, in the fog of stress and emotion, look like manipulation or game playing on the part of a distressed seller is actually just normal people trying to cope. For example: I have had situations where buyers have been eager to get the seller to sign the contract. However, there have been delays on the seller’s part due in large part to their circumstances. A signature might be delayed because a divorced spouse is out of state or working funny hours at a second job to make ends meet. Or a financially distressed seller can’t make a repair until after they squirrel up some extra money. 

And yet the buyers sometimes don’t see that. They see delay. Games being played. Shenanigans. That’s what it seems like to them. 

What the buyer often doesn’t understand is that their sensibilities are innaccurate because they are stressed and on edge in a situation that occurs in life but a handful of times. The seller isn’t playing them. They are just dealing with hardship. It is all in how you interpret through your mental filter. The best thing for the principals to do in a sale- especially a distress sale- is to practice deep breathing and not trust their physical impulses. Suspicion of the unknown may have helped our ancestors survive with sabre-toothed tigers, but it doesn’t help negotiate real estate. 

That’s what brokers are for. 

I have a conference all day in Manhattan tomorrow, so my Sunday was even busier than usual. At 9am I was at a kitchen table, discussing the next move for a new client. I seldom need “extra” motivation to get the job done for folks- I have 4 kids and a company to run. But sometimes, inspiration does find me. This little sweet thing was going to be put in another room, but I asked that she stay with us. I have had two yellow labs in my life, and adored them both. She looks- and acts- just like my Bella, whom we lost in 2008. 

So yes, I am going to help her daddy sell the house and find a new home that is pet friendly. It isn’t just the paycheck; I am about a roof over your head, home and hearth, and yes, a friendly space for the furry family member. 

I’ll be the first person to admit that I do a crummy job of leveraging my database of past clients. We don’t have any regular communications like newsletters or emails, and that is a lost opportunity. The company will be 7 years old this June, and by that time I will have a good system in place to reach out to our past clientele with some regularity.

That said, in the past few months I have noticed a nice trend: we are getting more referrals from past clients. It makes sense; with almost 300 closed transactions since 2005, somebody was bound to refer us a friend or relative. And they are. 

When I started the firm, I actually hadn’t sold a house in 5 years. I kept my license up and qualified as a broker because of my active career as an agent from 1996-2000 in Rochester, NY. But that was 300 miles away, and I had no referral base in Westchester. I started the company from zero, literally, earning every client through prospecting. Nothing was easy, and no one looked me up at the behest of a friend or relative. It was all my beating the bushes. 

Three months after the firm was founded, my brother Paul passed away very suddenly. Two years in, the Sub Prime Meltdown hit. The following year the Financial Crisis hit. Two and three year old companies seldom have much of a referral base of past clients to draw from. We sure didn’t. But we weathered the storm, and as 2012 begins, I can point to half a dozen active files that are sourced from past business and not from marketing. Each year, the percentage has grown, and I have to say that among the most rewarding feelings in the world is a past client entrusting their loved ones to my care. 

As I said, among my plans in 2012 is to do a better job of being in touch with past clientele. It isn’t just about soliciting referrals, but also to be a resource to those that trusted me in the past. However, it is smart business too, and no matter if people think of me because we’re in touch or they just recall a good job, I have to say that the more referrals we get the more I love them. It may sound a tad corny, but it really does inspire me. 

I am a huge fan of the Lake Superior State University Banished Words list. It is an annual survey of overused words and perusing past lists gives some insight into the pop culture of the time. Things like this really scratch that BA in English itch I get sometimes! 

What can you buy in Yonkers for $350,000? So glad you asked. I happen to have a fresh example of just such a home that closed earlier today for $350,000 right in Yonkers a stone’s throw from Bronxville. The property is a charming Tudor with loads of awesome, pre-war appointments like leaded glass windows, classic molding, pretty hardwood floors, and awesome curb appeal that. 

The home has 3 bedrooms, a full basement, a detatched garage, a rear patio, a walk up attic, formal dining room, first floor den, and a woodburning fireplace. The location is also wonderful, literally minutes from the Bronxville train station.

J. Philip Real Estate listed the property and brought the buyer as well- we wish both our seller client and buyer customer nothing but the best in their new surroundings. Total time on market from listing to closing: 86 days. This one went fast with multiple offers. But we have more- just log onto WestchesterDreamHome.com to find one of your very own. 

My pals at the Lucky Strikers Social Media Club will be putting on the 2012 edition of Real Estate BarCamp this Monday, January 9th from 9am to 5 (ish) at Simple Studios at 134 w 29th St in Manhattan. If you are a licensee and have never been to a BarCamp, you should check it out. If you’ve been to one, you’ll know what I mean. The incredible amount of cutting edge learning and peer to peer exchange of information at these events, to say nothing of FUN, is unparralleled.

Admission is $30 and that is the best deal on 8 solid hours of learning you’ll ever see. 

For those of you reading this who are consumers, you need to knwo that there are industry professionals who attend these events not to get continuing education credit or get out of the house for a day, but to give you better results and service. A commitment to learning, a need to be current and a desire to be ahead of the curve is paramount to selling real estate for happy clients in the 21st Century. 

For more information, log onto ReBarCampNY.com. If you are in the NY area or can get here, make plans!