Commentary April 5, 2011

The Ultimate Answer to the Zillow Zestimate

Perhaps no phenomenon in real estate is as much of a lightning rod for strong opinions as the Zillow Zestimate. Most agents I speak with hate it; I have had instances where looking it up has helped a deal and I have had clients walk from a deal because of it. The Zillow Zestimate has been the reason for sellers to feel under-priced or under-bid, and it has been invoked by buyers as the reason that they feel they overbid on a home. I once got so exasperated that I asked a client if a Zestimate ever drove them around Westchester County like I did when they used it to justify an unrealistic offer.

As you might guess, I have never associated the Zestimate with the easy button.

Yet today, I had an epiphany about the Zestimate with the great help of Zillow’s outreach manager, Brad Andersohn. Brad’s stature in my eyes is impossible to compromise; his credibility is beyond questioning. The Zestimate, Brad said as he spoke to a group of colleagues, is a starting point. Not an ending point.

Allow me to back up just a moment. Zillow’s own disclosure on their front page about Zestimate accuracy is surprisingly candid. In my own New York market, the average margin of error of the Zillow Zestimate is 11.6%. They aren’t trying to be something they are not.

Back to Brad- If the Zestimate is the starting point, he said, the licensed professional is the “Zactimate.” What a way of putting it.

It makes sense. There is no valuation algorithm that can smell a pet or recognize 1970 wood panelling in the living room. There is no formula to judge good or bad staging, a neighbor’s yard with a car on blocks, or a rehab job that transforms a ho-hum place into a palace. Indeed, a Zestimate cannot drive the client around in its car, and it is exactly what Brad says: a starting point.

The final word, the best source of predicting how the market will behave about a property is a living, breathing experienced licensee on the ground who can walk in the living room and look out the window. The Zestimate is an estimate. Period. It doesn’t live, work, drive through, or close deals in Westchester County. That’s what I do. As a broker who can sit at your kitchen table with my laptop logged onto the MLS and speak with authority on the town’s market activity (homes I myself often walked through and even sold myself), I am the Zactimate. In this context, there is peace at the water hole. I thank Brad for stating it so eloquently.

Active Rain April 3, 2011

Croton on Hudson Real Estate Market First Quarter 2011

Croton on Hudson Home Sales and Values

 

This is the market report for single family homes sold in the Croton-Harmon school district for the first quarter of 2011. All information is sourced fom the Empire Access Multiple Listing Service. 

In the first quarter of 2011, there were 15 closings with a median sale price of $540,000. 

In the first quarter of 2010, there were 11 closings with a median sale price of $542,000. 

4 additional closings at about the exact same median is a step forward over last year. Median price is only $2000 different-negligible. Croton is enjoying what appears to be a robust Spring. 

9 homes are currently under contract at a median asking price of $550,000. This tells me that the activity is not letting up- buyers are making deals. 52 homes are active on the market and available, so buyers don’t have the huge inventory to choose from as other places. 

If you’d like to search for a home in Croton or just see where home values are going, get yourself a free Listingbook account and search the MLS like an agent. 

Croton Gorge

Previous posts on Croton are here. 

Active Rain April 3, 2011

Chappaqua Real Estate Market First Quarter 2011

This is the market report for single family homes sold in the Chappaqua school district for the first quarter of 2011. All information is sourced fom the Empire Access Multiple Listing Service. 

In the first quarter of 2011, there were 15 closings with a median sale price of $946,500. 

In the first quarter of 2010, there were 17 closings with a median sale price of $900,000. 

I would characterize this as about even with last year. Median price is certainly up, but we’re two sales behind. Chappaqua is stable, which is not surprising for such a nice place. 

21 homes are currently under contract at a median asking price of $787,000 (one of them is  mine!). People are coming in and making deals, albeit on the less expensive side of the market. But sellers are packing. 142 homes are active on the market and available, so if you are interested in seeing what is available you’ll have plenty of choices. 

If you’d like to search for a home in Chappaqua or just check home values, get yourself a free Listingbook account and search the MLS like an agent. 

Chappaqua Train Station

Previous posts on Chappaqua are here. 

 

Active Rain April 3, 2011

Briarcliff Manor Real Estate Market First Quarter 2011

This is the market report for single family homes sold in the Briarcliff Manor school district for the first quarter of 2011. All information is sourced fom the Empire Access Multiple Listing Service. 

In the first quarter of 2011, there were 14 closings with a median sale price of $617,500. 

In the first quarter of 2010, there were 9 closings with a median sale price of $625,000. 

Things are looking up in Briarcliff. There is almost no difference in median price, but sales volume is up 55%. This is especially pronounced when one considers that 2010 was a stimulus period. There is no tax credit now.  Was there pent up demand? It would appear so. Whatever the reason, I’ll take it. 

6 homes are currently under contract at a median asking price of $734,500. There are 36 active listings available. That is a healthy inventory, and we’ll see if the second quarter continues the positive trend. 

If you’d like to search for a home in Briarcliff Manor, get yourself a free Listingbook account and search the MLS like an agent. 

Briarcliff Manor NY

Yes, our firetrucks are white!

Previous posts on Briarcliff Manor are here. 

 

Active Rain April 3, 2011

Ossining Real Estate Market Report First Quarter 2011

This is the market report for single family homes sold in the Ossining school district for the first quarter of 2011. All information is sourced fom the Empire Access Multiple Listing Service. 

In the first quarter of 2011, there were 28 closings with a median sale price of $369,500. 

In the first quarter of 2010, there were 44 closings with a median sale price of $442,000. 

These are significant differences. I stopped doing monthly market reports because 30 day spans in these small communities had results all over the place. Quarterly reports had more statistical significance. Therefore, the decline in the number of closings and the lower price is not an anomoly. 

23 homes are currently under contract at a median asking price of $449,500. This bodes better in terms of prices, but with 135 listings active and available there is still a huge imbalance in  the favor of buyers. 

It remains to be seen if we are indeed in the midst of a double dip. 

One thing is for certain: Now is a good time for buyers. If you’d like to search for a well priced home in Ossining, get yourself a free Listingbook account and search the MLS like an agent. 

Welcome to Ossining, NY

Previous postings on Ossining are here. 

Active Rain April 1, 2011

Welcome to the Sing Sing Gated Community!

The Sing Sing Gated Community… Our Residents Just Can’t Leave! 

If you’re like me and you love waterfront property, privacy, terrific security and and homeowners association that doesn’t admit just anybody, the Sing Sing Gated Community might just be for you. 

The exclusive Sing Sing Gated Community in Ossining, NYNestled on the banks of the scenic Hudson River in downtown Ossining, New York-my hometown- the Sing Sing gated community occupies 130 acres of prime riverfront real estate just a stone’s throw from the Metro-North train station. A mere 30 miles from Grand Central, Sing Sing is “up the river” as they say from Gotham, a short ride on the Metro North Hudson line. Of course, it takes more than a train ride to get in.  

Sing Sing is one of the oldest gated communities in New York (and the USA) and was actually built by the original residents! The Homeowner association president is actually known as the “warden” which gives the HOA a quaint charm. Among the amenities, the “longest mile” was originated here and is a popular feature in similar gated communites in Texas. 

While not a co op, residency at the Sing Sing Gated community does require board approval. There is also a minimum down payment rule, which actually tends to vary with the credentials of the applicant. Some characterize the down payment as an arm and a leg, others dismiss it as highway robbery. Despite the unique standards, there are seldom any vacancies. 

Actually, when I was a kid I remember the lights flickering in our neighborhood briefly and then there would be a vacancy the next morning, but that was a long time ago and the details are sketchy. Unlike a co op where residents get a proprietary lease and condos, where you get a deed, residents of sing sing are issued a “sentence” which I am sure dates back to New York’s old dutch roots. 

The exclusive Sing Sing Gated Community's terrific 24 hour concierge staff and doormenSecurity is what any gated community offers, and the Sing Sing Gated Community really excels in this area. They pride themselves on having 24 hour doormen- 1700 of them actually- friendly security, numerous towers with additional concierge staff to help residents find things like lost contact lenses, chipped teeth and the like, and they even have a physician and clinic right on the premises! Not only that, the Sing Sing Gated Community is an “all inclusive” place, with 3 meals a day served 365 days a year. They also have a library, a ball field, and “old school” physical fitness offerings, such as group calisthenics, “balls and chains” and even throwback marble and mallets! 

The concierge staff, especially the ones in the towers, are very protective of their residents’ privacy. As a matter of fact, when I took some of these pictures, one of them yelled at me and threatened to stuff my camera somewhere painful, and all I could think of was what a swell guy he was for protecting his people’s privacy like that. I’ll bet the residents really love that guy. 

Like many exclusive neighborhoods, the Sing Sing Gated Community has had many famous residents: David “son of Sam” Berkowitz, Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, and Lucky Luciano. The community is very selective about who gets residency here, and none of the openings are on the MLS. So, if you’d like more information about how to become a resident at Sing Sing, send me an email or call your local parole officer. 

Sing Sing Gated Community in Ossining, NY

Next week: 

Want an island getaway? Why not Rikers? 

Related posts:

The Sing Sing Triathalon: Dig, run, swim.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Happy April 1st!

Boy, they were not happy with that stinking no good broker taking pictures of their maximum security prison.

Active Rain March 30, 2011

Associated Press Quotes Me and My Client

I am quoted in this article released by the AP today on the state of the housing market. The thrust of the piece is that we aren’t out of the woods yet with prices. Distress sales are supressing values, inventory is giving buyers more choices-and moxie- and sellers are left to absorb the crisis of confidence. 

The survey of views from around the country seems to paint a rather consistent picture that what I see is a view shored by observers in other parts of the nation. Sellers are often having to reduce their asking price to get views, field low offers, and make accomadations to make deals work. 

The last quote of the article is from one of my clients, who made good copy. You should click and read his remark. Anyone who knows me will laugh at the words they read, and will likely agree that we often list people with similar personalities to our own. When a reporter ends the piece with your quote, that is high praise. My guy nails it. (I did not represent him years ago on his purchase, by the way). 

Active Rain March 30, 2011

Gobble ‘Till You Wobble

Wobble Cafe Ossining NYNestled on a quiet street corner of the Campwoods neighborhood in Ossining is an old school, kid friendly cafe with an old fashioned counter, and wallet friendly prices. I just spent of of the nicer afternoons with Catherine, and the highlight was our time at the Wobble Cafe.

Catherine had a strawberry smoothie and PB and J and Dad enjoyed his chocolate shake & BLT. I loved the atmosphere- the old fashioned cash register, the counter with a jar of rock candy, and the play area in back with the toys and couch. These places are rare. 

The menu is more than peanut butter and jelly- they serve breakfast, lunch and dinner, with an enticing, yummy bistro styled selection and according to their website the chef studied under Emeril! Not bad! 

Wobble Cafe is located at 21 Campwoods Road in Ossining, NY. You can reach them at 914-762-3459. 

Ossining is my home town and a beautiful community. To find a home in Ossining or the surrounding area, get yourself a free Listingbook account and sreach the MLS like an agent

Catherine digging in to chocolate ice cream

Wobble's old fashioned counter

 

Active Rain March 29, 2011

Starting From Scratch

 

I got a phone call from a fellow independent broker-owner yesterday asking how one would transition into being a listing agent when they were not focused on that part of the business before. Good question, and it is one that has been asked before by Brian Rugg when he relocated to a new state. 

I have “started from scratch” twice. I was first licensed in Rochester, NY where I was new in town and had no sphere of influence. Years later, after I met my wife, I relocated back home to Westchester, where I had not lived since high school. In both cases, I started with zero listings and no sales. 

Here is what I would do if starting from scratch in a new area:

  1. Expired listings. I prospected anyone in my entire county who came off the market unsold. Back in the day I would drop off brochures, knock on doors and call on the phone. Today I am more direct mailer oriented, with a piece that drives traffic to a web page specifically for people who expired unsold. 
  2. For Sale by Owner. I view FSBOs as open listings who want to sell and haven’t chosen an agent yet. Some are hardcore anti-agent, but most in my area will cooperate if you have a buyer or are not hitting them over the head about how dumb it is to go FSBO. Even if you don’t have a client in mind, just get a look at the house for potential buyers. I have gotten many a call back from people who appreciated that I wasn’t a hard sell. 
  3. Distress/Short Sale. This is especially for people who know their way around short sales and distressed properties. In my state defaults are public record. Most of them get contacted by out of state investors who harvest county clerks nationwide. They are more likely to work with someone who is licensed, local and whose hand they can shake. If you are unfamiliar with this niche, consider working for a broker who can help you. 
  4. BLOG. Write hyper local on subdivisions, restaurants, and community events. POST PHOTOS with some brief commentary on local beauty. You don’t need to be Hemingway or Faulkner. And at the end of the post, put a link to your IDX so that the post has a real-estate related call to action and that people know you sell real estate. Blogs are also an online resume and pre-listing package for anyone who googles you. 
Not every area has every niche I write of. Do what you can with what you have. In any event, when speaking with a new prospect leverage your past accolades and track record. It doesn’t matter if you sold houses on the buyer side or in another state, you know how to sell real estate
For Maya, I got some rest last night and gave it some thought: If I were you and transitioning into taking more listings, I would send a personal letter to my entire book of past business and let them know you are now taking listings, and have an awesome, 21st-century marketing plan if they want to sell their home. And if they aren’t selling now, you love referrals! 
Finis

 

Active Rain March 28, 2011

Pack 49 Visits Cortlandt Town Court

Cub Scouts checking out the squad carThis past Thursday Luke’s Cub Scout den had a visit to Cortlandt Town Court to get their badge for civics. I was eager to go, because I actually know the judge. I sold his aunt’s house a few years ago!

One thing that struck me about court was the huge number of drunk driving cases we saw. In the 90 minutes we saw people appearing before the judge, at least half a dozen cases of drunk driving or driving under the influence were there. One was even in custody, because the last time they appeared in court they were arrested AGAIN that very day for DWI! You can’t write fiction like that! 

Clearly, DWI is still a terrible problem, and I am going to be a wreck when my kids drive. As my mom used to say, I am not only worried about them. It is those other cars I don’t know about. 

After the court took a break, the den had a chance to speak with the judge, and they had a good question and answer session with Justice Daniel McCarthy. He was terrific with the kids and answered all of their crazy questions. I think, for the record, most kids watch too much TV. 

We also got to spend some time with a state police officer who was there to testify for a number of the cases, and the officer showed the den around the facility, let them see the inside of the patrol car, and then answered their questions. He gave them a terrific talk about guns and their dangers, and I might just post that video up when I get 30 seconds. 

This is something the kids will always remember, and understanding our system of justice, and the good folks who make it work on a municipal level-even the lawyers- was very gratifying to me.