Active Rain February 24, 2012

A Response to Glen Kelman of Redfin on “Dual Agent” Transactions

J Philip Real EstateIf you read Inman News, it is likely that you have seen the story on Redfin’s blog entitled “Sellers Lose in Dual Agency.” Glen Kelman, CEO of Redfin, had his firm look at the data covering 230,000 closed deals and concluded that homes sold in what REDFIN deems to be dual agent transactions sold for 1.6% less than transactions where a buyer agent was involved. In Redfin’s post, Mr Kelman was gracious to link to my own counterpoint from a little while back. He disagrees, but does not address any specifics. 

I don’t know about you, but if I were a consumer and read that I could get a deal for 95.6% of asking through the listing agent instead of 97.2% with my own rep, I’d fire my buyer agent and just deal directly with listing agents. I don’t think he meant to do this, but I don’t see how many members of the public would not unwittingly draw this conclusion. 

Part of my comment follows: 

Full disclosure: I was Redfin’s first partner agent when they opened business in New York. I remain good friends with Michael Daly, who is, in my view, a valuable asset to their enterprise and a top shelf man. 

In one of those transactions, a Redfin buyer client, after months of looking with me, ended up wanting to see one of my own listings. On the advice of Redfin’s Kevin Broveleit, I stepped back and designated an agent in my firm for both buyer and seller, as I am principal broker. This was an “in house sale” where I got MLS credit on both sides, but was not the type of dual agency Mr Kelman refers to. The devil in the details is that Redfin is assuming that MLS credit to one agent includes in house sales where buyer and seller had designated agents (which Redfin does engage in themselves) or simply a buyer customer who did not have the fiduciary service from the listing agent whose client remained the seller. Neither of those cases is the dual agency Redfin warns against.

In New York (which were three of the largest counties in the Redfin study), concluding that MLS credit to one agent in a transaction is dual agency is supremely erroneous. It could have been an “in house” sale where both buyer and seller had their own designated agent-something Redfin themselves engage in- or the buyer was simply a customer (as opposed to the seller client) who had no fiduciary representation from the listing agent. I am sure this is the case in many areas outside of New York. In order to know if there was really dual agency, you have to open the confidential file and read the agency disclosure. I’ve met Glen twice and we shook hands, but I never showed him any file, even on deals where Redfin referred me business. 

J Philip Real EstateThe data that Redfin uses to come to their conclusions is their IDX or Virtual Office feed from the MLS systems they belong to. How do I know this? They told me. This data is meant for consumer searches. It populates websites where consumers look for homes. It isn’t really a data pool that is meant for such a deep drilling matter as agency disclosure. A few months ago, when Redfin attempted to publish “field reports” of agent statistics, they had to end the project because the accuracy was a problem. I believe the same problem occurs in this instance when they are using a pool of data that is not being utilized for the its true purpose. There simply isn’t enough detail in IDX/VOW data feeds to analyze it properly for something as sensitive as agency representation and the consequences of such. 

For example, as I comented:

Do overpriced listings, which end up stale, sell for a higher percentage than aggressively priced homes that garner vast attention from cooperating firms? I think we know the answer. So, yes, listing agents often end up selling their overpriced inventory, (if they sell at all) themselves. And some of the “lowballers” do deal directly with the listing agent as part of their strategy. Even in those cases, with the seller as client and the buyer as customer, it is invalid to conclude that dual agency occurred. 

The devil is in the details. Without facts beyond raw sales and MLS credit, you can’t normalize the data for crucial variables, which is a basic statistical principle. Rather than paint with a broad brush over 230,000 deals, I think there would be more value to look carefully at 100 or 250 transactions. I don’t believe for a minute that buyers get a better deal with the listing agent directly, and I don’t think Glen would build a business modeled on that either. 

Redfin would do better to build their brokerage to be profitable and sustainable so that they never need another dime of venture capital, and leave the statistical analysis to the people with superior data. Those people would probably not be brokers. Any analysis that makes a buyer conclude they’ll get a batter deal without a true representative does those buyers no service. 

Active Rain February 20, 2012

Is the Apartment REALLY a 2 Bedroom?

There is a sinking feeling real estate agents get when we look up the history of a co-op or condo apartment we are listing for sale and see that our new client bought it as a 2 bedroom unit and prior transactions have it as a one bedroom. Obviously, two bedroom apartments are higher in value than those with one bedroom. However, using a den or alcove as a bedroom does not make the area a legal bedroom.

Generally speaking, a bedroom has to have its own door, a window, and a closet. That said, even if the owner hires a contractor to add a closet, you simply may end up with an illegal bedroom. All buildings have certificates of occupancy, and they specify the characteristics of the building. The reason for this isn’t simply municipal hegemony; the number of bedrooms indicate the probable number of inhabitants for matters like utility usage, parking spaces, and fire safety. If a large building with limited parking has ten or fifteen extra “bedrooms” added over time without  management’s knowledge, there can be a shortage of parking or quality of life issues the building was not designed to accommodate. That is why there is red tape or prohibition in legalizing a 2nd bedroom.

When owners and real estate agents list a 1 bedroom unit with a den or a junior 4 (one bedroom with a dining area) as a 2 bedroom, that information is out there forever. It remains in Multiple Listing Service  archives and real estate websites, and future owners of the unit who thought they bought a two bedroom and can only sell it as a 1 bedroom may be caught in the information undertow. This is a liability that is larger than any gain that the 2 bedroom listing might have yielded.

The pragmatic issue is that the current crop of buyers in this economy are very cautious, and do far more research than in years past. Moreover, a buyer needing a true second bedroom often turns on their heels when they see a 7′ by 9′ den or converted dining cubby being pawned as that second bedroom after viewing true 2 bedroom units. That does not foster trust.

Last year the Westchester Putnam Association of REALTORS (now the Hudson Gateway Association) began to actively stop member brokers from listing junior 4 and 1 bedroom units with a den as 2 bedrooms, and that did cause a backlash with some sellers who thought they owned two bedroom units. This was an unfortunate thing, but necessary to make sure that the integrity of the data going forward would be reliable.

The takeaway for consumers and agents alike is that a simple check with the management office can save future headaches and expensive mistakes.

Active Rain February 13, 2012

2012 Westchester Real Estate Market off to Slow Start in January

J Philip Real EstateSometimes there is no pretty way to say it, so I’ll just say it: January 2012 was not a very good month in Westchester real estate. According to the Empire Access MLS, both the transaction total and median sale price of single family homes in the county were down from the same time in 2011. Since 2011 started out far slower than 2010, the ramifications could be far reaching. 

To sumarize: 

In January 2011, 237 single family homes closed at a median sale price of $540,000. 
In January 2012, 219 single family homes closed at a median sale price of $485,000.

The last month of January the median price was below $500,000 was 2002, when the median was $472,000. That  month, however, there were 415 closings, or almost double last month. 219 transactions is a shrinking pie to share amongst the over 6,000 licensed sales people in Westchester. 

Median price is not average price, so rather than being more emblematic of where values are, it speaks to the buying public’s trend to buy less expensive homes. Clearly, the consumers are more conservative, discerning, and cautious. 

There are other factors at work as well. Currently, there are 676 homes under contract in the pipeline. If only half of them closed in the next 30 days it would be a very productive month. However, getting that many deals closed is  unlikely for several reasons. First, many of those deals are short sales that are months away from being approved by the sellers’  lenders. Also, the mortgage money supply continues to be quite tight, and many transactions are still caught in red tape, underwriting obstacles, and other roadblocks related to a crimp in the monetary system. 

Last week I attended a dinner keynoted by Michael McHugh, president of Continental Home Loans. In his view, the tighter money supply is a result of Dodd-Frank, and this trend is expected to continue as the legislation continues to be implemented. Ironically, 4% interest rates and lower prices and  are not enough to push the market out of the malaise. It is a complex issue, because the “fix” for the financial crisis is having a suppressing effect instead of strengthening the market it was designed to turn around. 

This does, of course, spell a huge opportunity for buyers. The climate is very heavily tilted in buyers’ favor, but how many take advantage remains to be seen. While many conditions clearly make it a great time to buy, the overall mentality of caution  is keeping many would-be buyers on the sideline. What buyers sitting on the fence should know is that if they are planning for the long term, they can get themselves a very good situations with excellent terms. They just have to get out there and make an offer. 

 

Active Rain February 11, 2012

Jeremy Lin is Going to Need a New York Real Estate Agent

Jeremy Lin at the end of the first Knicks game where I went crazy since the 90'sFor those of you not living in New York or who don’t follow NBA basketball, the toast of Gotham is Jeremy Lin, an unheralded, undrafted, and un-scholarshipped (is that a word?) point guard who just led the Knicks to their 4th straight win over the Lakers. He scored 38 points to pace the Knickerbockers, playing without their two stars, over LA 92-85. Lin is an amazing story: after leading his high school to the state championship, no college offered him a scholarship. I read last night that a coach at UCLA, Lin’s dream school, admitted that had they been wise enough to recruit him, he would have started for the Bruins. He played at Harvard and was undrafted by any NBA team. Two clubs cut him before the Knicks picked him up. He’s only been in town a couple of weeks and probably would still be on the bench if the squad weren’t plagued by injuries. And all he’s done is play out of his mind and lead the Knickerbockers to 4 straight wins. 

One of the announcers tonight mentioned that Jeremy is staying at his brother’s house on the lower east side on a couch. They went on to say that some real estate agents must be licking their chops, because Lin is not leaving New York anytime soon. I agree- Mr Lin is not going to be some journeyman who gets cut, waived, traded or sent back to D-League. He’s staying in Madison Square Garden and he’s going to have to do better than his brother’s couch. 

If Jeremy wanted to live in the suburbs, Westchester would be the best choice in my mind, and I think I know a good broker for him to call. However, I think he’ll stay in Manhattan, and that gets my wheels turning because I know an agent or two that, if I were in his shoes, I would use to find a home. 

I have done business with Eileen Hsu for years and she’d be a phenomenal choice. Eileen is a tremendous talent, a great advocate and negotiator, and possesses an incredibly committed work ethic. I have had a front row seat in some transactions of a highly difficult nature where Eileen gave virtuoso performances and got the job done elegantly. 

My friend Doug Heddings also comes to mind. Heddings Property Group is perhaps the most forward thinking and innovative real estate brokerage in Manhattan. The firm’s growth proves that Dog knows where this industry needs to go to truly serve the public. 

Walt Frazier JrOf course, Knick hall of famer and announcer Walt Frazier’s son Walt Frazier Jr is an agent with Keller Williams in Manhattan, and he may already be on the job. I had the good fortune of meeting Walt at the New York RE Bar camp last month, and I remembered him from his own illustrious college basketball career at Penn when he played some great games against my alma mater, Villanova, and ruined our chances of winning the Big 5 in 1988-89. Walt, who has the heart of a champion, runs a great operation. 

But alas, in the post game tonight the commentators mentioned that Jeremy has been offered the apartment of ex-teammate David Lee in White Plains. 

What really gets me jazzed about Jeremy Lin is not the pipe dream of being his real estate agent. My 9-year old son Luke has coincidentally discovered a love of basketball in the last few months. Luke has ADD and last year, prior to his diagnosis, he had to endure some difficult times in school both academically and socially. It is not easy for a father to see that, and Ann and I have worked hard to help him. I had ADD too and sports made a huge difference for me. It is beginning to make a difference for Luke. He and I will be going to some games aside from the ones we play in the driveway, and a role model like Mr Lin makes a father’s job easier. His story of perseverance and faith is an inspiration. And that’s why Madison Square Garden is electric again. 

 

Update: Lin is out in front again- NY Post already reported he’s househunting! 

Active Rain February 7, 2012

How Much Will You Cut Your Commission If I Find a Buyer?

Welcome matEvery so often I get a call from a home seller asking me a variation of this question:

What will the commission be if I find my own buyer?

It could be a seller client or someone considering listing their home with my company. Typically, the discussion that follows reveals that the questioner

  • either wants a complete exemption from commission because it is “their” buyer or:
  •  a steep discount because they think most of the work is now done. 

This shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the role their broker plays in the sale of their home. 

To backtrack: In 2004, a person could make an offer on a home, get it accepted, and get a mortgage in 30-40 days without much effort or hand holding from their agent. I know this firsthand; I was a loan officer from 2001 until about 2005 when I started my company. It was so easy to get a mortgage back then that it was almost scary- there were no income loans, no documentation loans, and all sort of other programs that required a pulse and little else. If a person liked a home and wanted it, you sent them to the mortgage broker down at the corner, left them alone, and they moved in 60 days later. All that was needed for a house to sell was a person that liked the place. 

Since the housing downturn, the pendulum has swung the other way. Banks are so cautious and strict in their underwriting that even seemingly well qualified people have a hard time getting to the closing table. The scrutiny from bank underwriters not only borders on suspicion, sometimes it feels like they are looking for an excuse to avoid lending the money.

In this climate, finding the buyer is just the beginning of the work. Not only are the banks more cautious, buyers also proceed with far more trepidation and hesitation than they ever did in years past. Even when people simply love a house, I have seen deals implode over draconian underwriting or buyers who have gotten spooked over a seemingly easy to fix problem on the seller’s side, such as an open permit or high radon reading. 

Super Bowl Champion Eli ManningToday, an accepted offer is anti climactic. Once a buyer makes an offer, we have to navigate an obstacle course of home inspections, attorney haggling over contract verbiage (which can drag on for weeks here is lawyer happy New York), appraisal issues, title concerns, commitment conditions, challenges to get a clear to close and a ton of other possible “gotchas” that we often doubt a closing will happen until all parties show up. 

No sane person dislikes saving money. I sure don’t. But if a seller has a cousin or a neighbor they run into at the store who expresses an interest in their home, they should immediately refer them to their agent and ensure that the deal has the best chance of closing. You never as a seller want to compete with your own agent. It is tempting for some to think that they can “save” by bargaining their agent to a lower (or no) commission by procuring their own buyer. But the skill set that it takes to carry that buyer over the finish line is far more than most regular folks possess. 

There are rare cases when a seller might have a solid buyer lined up where an exclusion could be negotiated for a reduced commission IF the buyer is a quick knockout punch. But the sort of prospect who can truly close quickly with no time on market or the associated expenses is rare. Often the the seller is seduced by mere interest, as if it were 2004 again and all they need do is send their prospect down the street. In this day and age, that doesn’t occur much. In a transaction the magnitude of selling a home, the best thing to do is have your professional do the job, and rest assured that you are getting what you paid for. 

If you want a do it yourself project, build a go-cart. For real estate, use your broker no matter where the buyer might come from. 

Active Rain February 5, 2012

Pigs Only Understand Slop

This past December I established a zero tolerance policy for uncooperative mortgage loan officers. In the past 24 hours I have faced the same issue. One of my agents is representing buyers in a particularly difficult purchase. The buyer clients were telling her things that she need clarity on, and over a week ago she reached out to their loan officer at a large, well known big box bank you have heard of. 
No response. 
A few days ago, she emailed the loan officer again. 
No response. 
 
I reached out. I was less, shall we say, timid.
Here’s the response we got: 
 

I believe you should communicate with the clients who applied for the loan. I have been in constant communication with them and they can provide you with status.

 If you are not 100% satisfied with my service or your experience with <Uberbank> at any time, please let me or my manager know right away.  Our contact information is below.  Thank you for choosing <Uberbank>.

<name and contact info for manager>

This is the kind of arrogance that confounds me. What he’s basically saying is that not only does he not care, but his boss doesn’t care either. Institutionalized pompousity. Meanwhile, the client spins their wheels and the folks on the other side of the transaction grind their teeth. 
 
What do I do now? Say pretty please? Reach out to a manager who will repeat the party line? Obviously they don’t care if they never get a file from us and they don’t care if this closes. They just don’t care. 
 
Pigs only understand slop. After some thought, I sent back the following response: 
 
Believe me, we don’t exactly want to communicate with you. As a matter of fact when this file is concluded, I’d probably avoid you. 

The thing is that we have jobs to do, and communication from the loan officer is essential at some times when the client tells us things that don’t add up. 

So when  we seek you out, we aren’t looking to enjoy your sparkling, collegial personality. We seek clarity on something the client cannot offer. Why don’t you call the <Uberbank> branch in Scarsdale for advice on how to address something like that, and they might be able to offer you some insight on what we seek. I have more use for their LO team than your supervisor. 

Have a great weekend.

I fully expected another frustrating response, but I was pleasantly surprised. 
I got an apologetic voicemail (which will be saved for a long, long time!) and my agent got a personal phone call-on a Saturday- from this LO apologizing for the nastiness, and a clear status update. It wasn’t the best news, but it was news and that’s what we needed. 
 
I don’t know if my response was truly the cause, but I’m certain that something caused a change of heart over there. Maybe he googled me. Maybe his conscience whispered in his ear. I don’t care. I just know that in December I pledged not to rest in situations like this until I knew the score. And now we know the score. 
 
Now we can do our job again. 
 
 
 
 
Active Rain February 3, 2012

Pleasantville, NY Voted 2nd Best Smelling City in the Galaxy

Pleasantville HouseI have often said that nearby Pleasantville is aptly named. It borders Briarcliff Manor to the east and is idyllic: a picturesque, charming little village on the Harlem line of Metro North with shops, eateries, and culture. The latest feather in the village’s cap is that GQ magazine voted it the second best smelling city in the world

Good for them. I’m no expert on aroma but I can tell you that living in Pleasantville would never stink. My first job ever, which paid for my junior prom in 1984, was washing dishes at Pace University. When I took a year sabbatical from life in 2000 before I got married I tended bar at Mediterraneo. As a matter of fact, I proposed to Ann over a nice meal from Mediterraneo, but it was takeout. They still get credit. I meet every other Friday at Jean Jacques with my networking group. And the Jacob Burns Center is Westchester County’s premier theater for cultural films. 

We love to do business in Pleasantville. Stephanie Solano, one of our top agents, lives in Pleasantville and is a local expert. 

In 2011, 47 homes sold in Pleasantville at a median price of $495,000. 
There are currently 40 homes for sale in the Pleasantville school district at a median list price of $649,450.  

It is a great time to be a buyer, and if central Westchester County is a good location for you, you should check Pleasantville out. Better yet, reach out to Stephanie. (914) 645-2433

Previous posts on Pleasantville.

View homes for sale in Pleasantville with or without registration

 

Pleasantville Named Best Smelling ‘City’: MyFoxNY.com

Active Rain February 2, 2012

Wordless Wednesday: Victorian Home, Peekskill, NY

Active Rain February 1, 2012

How the Chappaqua Condo Market Demonstrates That All Real Estate is Local

173 Birchwood Close Chappaqua $375,000For the third time in the past 4 weeks, I have been contacted by a buyer who chose to call me directly instead of having their agent call me because their offer was not accepted. In each case, I have told the agent-and the buyer when they called- that I’d be happy to know what comparable sale they used to justify their price. In each case, I have heard the same thing in lieu of any other fact: It is a buyer’s market.

This is what I wrote earlier this week on the “buyer’s market:

 the “buyer’s market” phrase was thrown around as if it were some childhood game wildcard phrase that granted immunity from logic or true market forces.

In other words, there were no other sales they could use to justify their price- it was just a speculative pipe dream. 

One of the properties we are dealing with is a condominium in Chappaqua in the Old Farm Lake complex. Even though the 4th quarter of 2011 was not good and prices across the Westchester market were down about 5% from last year, the condominium market in Chappaqua is actually up. Here are some facts:

  • In 2009, the median price of a condo in Chappaqua was $453,000. 
  • In 2010, the median price of a condo in Chappaqua was $467,000.
  • In 2011, the median price of a condo in Chappaqua was $505,000. 
2011’s median price is the highest since 2008, when there were 19 closings at a median price of $530,000. In 2011 there were 17 closings. Not much of a difference. 
 
It’s local. This small sector of the market for whatever reason is up in median price. You can’t stress it enough: All real estate is local. What we read about in Nevada, Arizona or Florida is fine when evaluating the national scene. But if you are buying something, it is the local facts on the ground that matter, not what is happening in another state. Is it still a buyers market? It is. But the degree of leverage a buyer has on a Chappaqua condo is not what they’d have in Florida, and if they make the mistake of judging things outside of the locale, they risk losing out on a nice unit. 
 
173 Birchwood Close Chappaqua $375,000
Active Rain January 31, 2012

Yuck it Up, Foreclosure Lawyers. Yuck it Up.

Waiting outside the court roomNew York State has something known as settlement conferences for homeowners facing foreclosure. It is a good law. Distressed borrowers can go to the courthouse and meet with lawyers of their lender face to face in front of a judge or court appointed referee. The referee is there to make sure that the bank is treating the borrower fairly, and if the borrower is trying to modify their loan, they are given every chance to do so with the conference process in place to ensure fair treatment. 

I have accompanied quite a few clients to these hearings. I have seen referees discuss with bank lawyers lost faxes, red tape, and much of the other nonsensical stuff that banks often subject their borrowers to, and the referee/judge doesn’t have much room for that sort of thing. It is the closest thing to compassion by statute I have ever seen for borrowers facing foreclosure. 

Now, while this sounds well and good, the borrowers who get these letters calling them to schedule a conference are beyond stressed. They are frightened. Nothing I can say makes them comfortable about going to court in front of a judge and facing the lawyer who represents the bank in the foreclosure proceeding. The only role I can play when I go with my clients is that of support. It makes a difference. 

About 2 weeks ago, I went with another client to one of these conferences. It was the same as you’d expect- a stressed out borrower with his home listed with me as a short sale with a manila folder filled with his records. He couldn’t afford a lawyer. We waited in the hall together outside the court room, which acted as a waiting room of sorts for the foreclosure lawyers while the judge held the conferences in her chamber. 

You have to appreciate the place filled with other borrowers behind on their mortgages waiting for their sessions. They show up with thick folders, they speak in hushed tones, and the scent of fear is heavy in the air. It’s like a wake or a hospital emergency room waiting area. Even when the borrower can afford their own attorney, it is somber. One husband and wife showed up with their toddler daughter, wide eyed and adorable. I can imagine the mental gymnastics they were going through to be strong for her. 

I debated even posting about this, and while it is not the Zapruder film or conclusive proof of the Yeti, it is significant because it speaks to the times we live in.

We were about 10 feet from the door, and our session was for 10am. We didn’t get in front of the judge until 11:30, so we had 90 minutes together in the hall while we heard the bank attorneys in the next room talk. 

And these guys were having a good old time. A laugh a minute. It was just a good old boy, back slapping, bull session among colleagues who were either oblivious to the suffering of the people 10 feet away, or they just didn’t care. Now since they could see us and walked past us every time they went to get a drink or go to the men’s room, and since they knew why we were there, I have to conclude that they just didn’t care. Not a lick.

My client just shook his head. It dawned on me that I had my mobile phone, so, for science, I ran the camera for 60 seconds to see if I could capture our friends in a few carefree laughs. They didn’t disappoint. I have never seen this kind of behavior outside a settlement conference in any other courthouse. It’s almost like they were rubbing it in; Hey pal, we’re all lawyers in suits with this steady gig representing the bank, and you’re not. So sit there and marinate in your stress and fear- we’ll be 10 feet away, yucking it up in our little carefree club, and revel in our joy of not being you. It went on all morning. 

Like I said: I have been to conferences in counties all over the Hudson Valley, and I won’t name which courthouse this one was. But none of the other ones was remotely like this. I might add that the woman in the foreground closest to the door was the lawyer for my client’s bank. She couldn’t have been a nicer lady, and her discomfort with the contrast between the rooms was obvious to me over the 90 odd minutes. But her colleagues? When they get theirs I won’t shed a tear. So yuck it up and rub my guy’s nose in it boys. Your time will come. Karma’s a bitch

Go to about 0:30.