Ann and I have just put the four children to bed that we brought into the world after Osama bin Laden tried to ruin it. Watching the news recaps, tributes, and the name ceremony a short drive south today was painful for us, not because because we lost anyone (our loved ones were, fortunately, all spared), but because of the abject terror of that day 10 years ago. We were in Manhattan that morning. 

Our wedding was scheduled for September 29, 2001. Ann’s parents were on a plane due that afternoon from Korea. And on our short drive from her apartment to her office on the upper east side, we could see the north tower billowing thick black smoke in the distance, like a big cigar sticking up. By the time we parked and went upstairs to her office, everyone was watching TV. We saw the 2nd plane hit the south tower, live on TV, a cab ride away. The shock of the event, the malfeasance and planning that had obviously gone into the operation, was chilling. News reports were alarming- other planes were hijacked- the Pentagon was hit- the port authority was closing the bridges and tunnels-and soon, we would not be able to leave Manhattan. Ann wanted to remain at her office in case her parents needed to reach her. I couldn’t see us separating. We English majors are too familiar with irony to let that happen. 

With the disaster so close, the news of war trickling in and the unknown hanging over our heads like the sword of Damacles, I appreciated, for the first time, what my father must have gone through when he served in the 2nd World War and Korea. What would they hit next? The subways? The water? I put Ann back in the car and we went downstairs. In the lobby, we saw the south tower fall on TV. 

We crossed the 3rd Avenue Bridge into the Bronx and started home to my mother’s house in Ossining. I specifically chose that bridge because it wasn’t a Port Authority crossing, and wouldn’t be closed. There were no cars on the road as I drove home. I felt like I was in an apocolyptic movie. But it was real, and it was absolutely terrifying because it was in our midst. And we didn’t know what would happen next. I felt certain that they would sabotage the trains. They seemed more vulnerable than planes. 

The stories we heard on the phone with friends were not TV network news. People were jumping from the towers with flaming clothes. They jumped in groups. My brother lost a client who was trapped above the impact whose last call to his wife was that the floor was getting very hot. He was never found. And after the towers fell, you could see the cloud for miles while sirens blared in the distance. Ann’s aunt in Chinatown, a few blocks from what was already being called “Ground Zero,” was unreachable because the phone infrastructure was severed. And there were a bunch of channels on my mother’s TV showing a test pattern.  I will never forget the fear we felt, the metallic, cold terror of what the next moment would bring, and the great effort to get my mind around such an unthinkable tragedy a brisk walk away.  

All loved ones were accounted for by the end of the week. My in laws stayed in a high school gym in Minnesota after they were grounded. Ann’s aunt was fine. We were all OK physically. It took all we had to resume our plans and not let evil deter us from our lives. I could go on for pages, but we got home safe, and we got married 18 days later. On July 16, 2002, Luke was born. He was the first of 4 candles we lit against that backdrop of darkness. Ann has said that if we met at 23 and not 33 that we’d have 4 more. 

Ann worked through her pregnancy at her job in Manhattan, and I drove her every day. She never rode a train again. Once we were parents, we sought to live and work in Westchester. The rest is history. 

From 1996 through 2000, I sold real estate in Rochester, New York. I learned the business in a way very similar to the way real estate deals are put together in most other parts of the country. Here’s the typical chronology:

1. The buyer makes an offer in writing on a boiler plate form jointly approved by the local Bar Association and the Association of REALTORS. When countersigned by the seller, that offer then becomes the purchase and sale contract. 
2. The contract is contingent on attorney approval, home inspection, and mortgage within specified time frames. 
3. Once the attorneys approve the contract and inspection issues are settled, the remaining contingency is the buyer’s mortgage. 

Bidding wars are relatively rare in Westchester County except in those cases where the house is very special. Multiple offers are not uncommon, but having more than one offer does not mean the price necessarily gets bid up. Sometimes, when  we ask buyers for their best and highest, it can backfire and the competing offer walks, not desiring to go higher in price when there are so many other options out there. Sometimes, a buyer will get caught in the heat of competition and make an offer far higher than they are truly comfortable with. They later get buyer’s remorse, and that’s when things get messy. 

Upon occasion, we recieve a “contingent” offer on a listing. Most offers have contingencies, such as mortgage and inspection. But in Westchester and New York, a “contingent offer” is one where the buyer still needs to sell their own house (in nearby Fairfield County, CT it is known as a “Hubbard Clause”). Most of the time, our client wants nothing to do with waiting for another home to sell in order for them to sell their own. But what really makes the arrangement untenable is when the rest of the terms of the offer give us no reason to even consider the deal, even if the buyer’s home is quite salable. 

When negotiating, win/win works best. If something about your offer is less attractive, you have to compensate somehow by adding something that is attractive. In other words, if you want the seller to take their home off the market (and wait for your home to sell risking that it won’t and they’ll lose 60-90 days on market), you can’t expect them to embrace a low number. What’s in it for them? Why wouldn’t they just keep their home on the market and wait for a higher offer? 

Price and terms. Price and terms. Those are the magic words. Not just price, not just terms. They go hand in hand. Cash buyers know this, and that is why they leverage their strong terms with a lower price so often. They have leverage. On the other hand, if you are making a contingent offer, you have no leverage. None. Zero. Zip. Nada. Moreover, you are asking the seller for a huge favor, which is to share your own risk that your house might not sell. And yet we get some people who still make a low offer! Why would a seller do this? 

If a buyer truly believes that they can sell their own home and want to make a contingent offer to buy, they need to understand that their offer must be strong- very strong- to compensate for their contingency. It’s only logical. If you are going to make a contingent offer, and you want to be taken seriously, don’t lowball. A strong contingent offer just might be considered. And if you are making an offer on the home where you’ll want your loved ones to live, don’t you want your offer seriously considered?  

A recent post by Donna Harris got me to take this thought out of mothballs and share my view on a phenomenon I am witnessing out there in the market. We’ve heard of a “shadow inventory” of foreclosed homes that aren’t yet on the market. They are there, but they aren’t potential business until they get listed. 

Well, I think there is another “shadow inventory,” and it is on the side of the buyers. I’ll explain. As a listing agent, I monitor the number of showings each of my listings get. Some have has 20, 30 or even 40 showings and haven’t sold yet. So what did the 30 people who walked through end up buying? 

In most cases, nothing. There weren’t 30 other sales in that locale or price category. 25 of those 30 parties who walked through never bought anything. If they did, the market would have taken off. It didn’t. I would opine that more than half of the people out there looking won’t buy now or in the foreseeable future for a variety of reasons. 

• They still have to sell their current home.
• They haven’t been to the bank yet & won’t get approved.
• They are nervous about committing to a purchase in this environment.
• Their “plan,” such as an inheritance or parental gift won’t pan out. 
• They like to look at houses.

Many of the agents working with these people are so desperate for business that they feel that working with a warm body beats sitting at home. And they hope that the buyer will find something so spectacular and wonderful that they’ll finally commit, go to the bank, or get off their rear end and buy. But they seldom do. Like the shadow inventory of homes, these people are “there,” but they aren’t business. They are busy work. 

In the meantime, we’ll still have 10, 20, and 30 showings that don’t buy- this house, or any house, while the agents accompanying those people spin their wheels and hope for a miracle. It isn’t a good business plan, but it is a reality. 

Last week I wrote a blog post asking if the local media and politicians overdid the warnings about Tropical Storm Irene. My concern was that, in light of the area being relatively spared, future warnings might not be taken as seriously. It turns out that the answer to my question would be “no,” as in they didn’t overdo it. Much as I disliked the schoolgirl-like giddiness of some of the weather reporters (which is a trend that will probably never go away), the aftermath of the storm has revealed enormous damage right here in our own back yard. 

• President Obama was just in Paterson, New Jersey, less than an hour from me, because the flooding was so severe. 
• Power outages in Westchester were significant, and some were without electricity for days. 
• Westchester also had plenty of flooding, including a a home that is under contract with some clients of ours. The basement was so flooded that the laundry appliances were floating. 
• The flooding wasn’t just in basements. Last Sunday I published photos of standing water in Thornwood, NY which turned a main road into a lake, and a garage that was almost washed away by a brook that overflowed. 
• Tannersville, New York in the nearby Catskills had its downtown literally washed out. The main street was a river. 

Our Westchester Active Rain meetup is tonight at 7pm at the Brazen Fox in White Plains NY. All are welcome! 

The address is 175 Mamaroneck Avenue, White Plains, NY 10601. Parking is best behind the building in the municipal lot on the corner of Maple and Waller. Brazen Fox does have a rear entrance from the lot. They use a muni meter, in case you are keeping score. 

I have about 8 confirmations so it should be a fun time, and it will be nice to meet in person and break bread as we gear up toward autumn. 

Feel free to ask questions in the comments or email me at jphilip@jphilip.com. If you want, give me a call on my mobile, 914-450-8883. 

As I enter my 45th autumn, I sometimes ponder what life has taught me through this journey. I bite my tongue more than I did 20 years ago when tempted to make a wisecrack. I ask myself what my father would do more often. And, with fatherhood, I thank God for the safe return of my children from school and camp every day. 

I recall hating to be behind a school bus in the morning. It slowed me down, got in my way, and caused me to be late. It was a nuisance. But now that I put my 4 children on school bus, I am far more patient. And if I am late, it is my fault for not planning better. But years ago, while I’d never pass a bus or do anything stupid around one, I did impatiently pump the gas once the bus turned away. And thankfully, I never hurt myself or another in my immaturity. 

So now that I am a dad, I have a request for everyone out there with the start of school arriving in our area this week. School is open. Please please please drive carefully. Those are my babies on those buses, and I want them home safe tomorrow and every day afterward. If you have kids, you know what I mean. If you don’t, please trust me on this one. Children get on and off buses, cross the street, and assume they’ll live forever. They trust that cars see them. They are wrong. But don’t let them pay for that mistake with their life- be alert enough for both yourself and them. Please be careful. Please be patient. 

Again, please drive safely, very safely, because nobody I know has a child to spare. We need them all. 

Anyone who knows me knows that I love the Hudson River towns, and not just the ones in Westchester. Nyack in Rockland is near and dear to my heart, and so is Cold Spring, a hop skip and a jump away in Putnam County, NY directly across the Hudson from West Point. 

The area is very popular with weekenders from Manhattan, and aside from the village of Cold Spring, which has one of the most charming downtowns you’ll ever see, there is also the village of Nelsonville, and the larger areas  outside the villages in the town of Philipstown. All share the Cold Spring post office, and all are served by the Haldane school distict. There is something here for everyone here from historic, quaint village living, to bucolic acreage with privacy and majesty up the mountainside. 

The market here is more like Westchester than Putnam or nearby Dutchess county. In the 90 days spanning June through August, the area had 10 closed single family home sales at a median sale price of $407,500, which is almost $100,000 higher than the $315,000 median price in the rest of Putnam. In the same period last year when the stimulus was still skewing price and volume upward, 10 homes sold at a median price of $481,000. This is a significant drop in median price, but 2010 was affected by the $8,000 tax credit. There are two homes under contract at a median price of $457,500. 65 homes are on the market at a median list price of $499,900. 

The high inventory points to now being an exceptional time to be a buyer in the Cold Spring area. There is some real opportunity here. We currently have a beautiful listing in the town outside the village on 8 acres with a pond for $549,900. It is an all-brick, 2400 square foot 4 bedroom 2.5 bath ranch with a 2-car garage and 2 patios. That is an incredible value for a locale that is just over an hour from New York City on the Hudson Line. The area is one of the little jewels that deserves far more attention. 

If you’d like more information on the property, call or email me. If you’d like to search for Cold Spring area homes like an agent, get yourself a free Listingbook account.