Last month I posted on the shrinking disparity in transaction totals in Westchester County comparing 2010 to 2011. This year has been playing “catch up” with last year’s totals, and each month 2011 has been closing the gap. It was my theory that 2010 started out hot due to the stimulus but that 2011 would catch up by year’s end.  Last month, we were just 139 closings for single family homes through the end of the 3rd quarter.

Well, October wasn’t a good month for closing the gap. We are now down by 157 transactions, 3463 in 2010 to 3306 for this year. 

Here’s the breakdown:

In January through October of 2010, Westchester had 3463 single family home closings at a median sale price of $640,000. 

In January through October of 2011, Westchester had 3306 single family home closings at a median sale price of $620,000. 

Breaking it down by month:

October 2010: 285 closings at a median price of $576,500
October 2011: 266 closings at a median price of $517,500

October sucked. The sad thing isn’t that buyers aren’t buying. They just can’t get to the closing table for a variety of reasons. The data on pending sales shows a ton of deals on the 1-yard line that can’t get into the end zone. Here is what I said last month:

A whopping 656 homes are under contract or pending right now, but the median asking price is $499,000. If only half of those close, 2011 will easily surpass 2010 in transaction total but take a body blow with median sale price. I’ll bet the lion’s share of those 656 deals are actually short sales. If so, that could clog up the timeline. 

I hate to be right, but we still have 674 deals under contract or pending sale at that same median price of $499,000. 190 of them are pending, meaning they should close in the next week or two. But they won’t. 

The caution I am seeing in the marketplace is incredible- and paralyzing. Looking at my own pipeline, I have buyers refusing to sign contracts unless minor title issues are cleared (these things are typically addressed once we have a contract). Attorneys are killing deals over title issues. Banks are getting stingy about underwriting minutaie. We have one house where the owners paid taxes on both bathrooms and assumed they were legal, but the 2nd bath had no certificate of occupancy (CO), delaying things. Loans are getting denied.

Whatever can go wrong, is going wrong routinely. Add to that the high level of caution by buyers, and you get pipeline constipation. Plus, there are a ton of short sales a long way from approval and closing. We have one short sale approved since August and are on our 3rd extension because the buyer is having financing issues. 

Will we catch up to 2010? We may, but it will take a coordinated effort on the part of lenders, attorneys, and ever more importantly, the municipalities in approving permits expeditiously. Again, the deals are in place. They have to close though. 

Look for a photo finish! 

 There are deals out there with autumn and the holidays here. Get yourself a free Listingbook account or log onto WestchesterDreamHome.com. 

In light of recent events, such as Market Leader’s newest investment in Active Rain Corp. and other developments in Seattle, there has been one area of the company’s operations that has been been conveniently ignored, and it is for the reader to decide if this is oversight or clever obfuscation. But those of us who have been  rising in point totals over the years do deserve full disclosure from management. 

This morning, I passed the 666,000 point total when I logged in, making me 2/3 of the way toward Active Rain Millionaire status. For more information on your own points, if you don’t know already, I would direct the reader to click on 

ActiveRain.com>My Home> Point Total (in lower left sidebar). 

One has to wonder what the real value of our point total really is. 

When I first became active on this platform, Lenn Harley was the high point leader with something in the order of 700,000 points. There were no million point people, and 100,000 tallies were considered the “point affluent” if you will. There was no automatic 100 points for logging on, no contests to speak of, and you have to earn them the “hard way” but producing content in the form of a blog post or comment.

Today, we have what might be considered point inflation. You get points for logging on. For contests. For the best caption on a Facebook photo.  New Registrants get bonus points for their first blog and checking their score of all things. It is decadent.  It is a little known fact that I earned 15,000 points at the Atlantic City Raincamp for an event that will remain between myself, Gettysburg Gerry, and certain staff at Caesar’s. The less said the better. 

Moreover, the number of AR “millionaires” has exploded to almost half the first page of the leaderboard. 

Which leads me to the question: How are Nikesh, Market Leader, and other higher ups in management in Seattle accounting for the inflation of Active Rain points? Is it a zero sum model where point totals increase but the per unit value decreases? Or is it a “growing pie” where they are actually borrowing more points from a non domestic source, such as a foreign nation like China, creating a debt that membership cannot make good on? Are the points each backed by an infinitesimal scrap of silicon (and if so, where is it?), or are we to simply rely on the full faith and credit of ActiveRain Corp.? 

The changes in managment give me a grave concern about backroom deals on the matter or deliberate withholding of material information from membership. And what of insurance? We need to know that if we need our points, they are there and that they have equity. I hereby demand a transparent accounting from Active Rain Corp. on the points -our points- so that we can sleep at night. 

This morning in New Windsor, New York, I had the privilege of witnessing the Orange County Association of Realtors overwhelming vote in favor of merging their association with WPAR (Westchester-Putnam) and ROCBOR (Rockland) to form the new Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors. This was the third and final “yea” vote between the three boards, and paves the way for an offical merger commencing January 1, 2012. 

OCAR’s leadership did an outstanding job of educating the membership on the merits of the merger proposal, from a well done YouTube video by president Ron Garafalo to office meetings, informational mailings and even social media. No one could say they didn’t know the details unless they really weren’t paying attention. And from the discussion I saw, membership clearly paid attention. 

I should mention that in 2005 when I started the company, I joined OCAR before joining the then Westchester Board of Realtors. There was a thought that Ann and I might move our family to Washingtonville or Goshen. I have worked in Orange County and been a member of the Greater Hudson Valley MLS ever since. We remained in Westchester, but I know firsthand that the association is an excellent group with strong leadership, and it will make HGAR better. 

I have written previously on the Westchester and Rockland votes posts why I believe this is good for the public. I’ll indulge in a selfish motive of why I was so in favor of the merger: in the future, when the respective contracts run out with the vendors, the two MLS systems will be consolidated into one Multiple Listing Service. With the natural crossover between our market areas, this will benefit all brokerages, but for firms like mine that pay for two separate MLS systems, it will make a positive difference in managing overhead. The best reason for consolidation is economics. This is smart economics for sure. 

I like nice people. You probably like nice people too. Nice people are…nice. Given the choice, I prefer to do business with nice folks. Especially here in rushed, rude, New York and occasionally aristocratic Westchester County, nice people are such a breath of fresh air. Of course, in business, being nice isn’t enough. People want to get from point A to point B, and if all they get is nice with no result, they get frustrated. 

For example: You might have had the experience of dining in a well-known bistro and been greeted by a cheerful, perky, awesomely-flared server who was wicked nice. They were really super neato charming. They ask all about you and you learn all about them, and, sometimes, you might feel a slight urge to stuff the center table ornament in their mouth and tell them to go get your food. 

That doesn’t make you a bad person. It makes you “hungry.”

In my bartending days back in the Mesozoic era, people would come in and enjoy my company greatly. However, they only enjoyed my wit and charm after I made them “not thirsty.” Then we’d be nice together until Ted Koppel came on the TV. Of course, throughout the process, I made sure their glasses were full.

Here’s the real estate lesson. Recently, one of my clients was fortunate enough to get an offer on his property on a Friday. We had quite a few showings scheduled for the weekend, and the buyer graciously agreed to wait until Monday for us to evaluate any other interest that might arise until Monday. We received another offer on Monday. The second offer was informed of a competing offer on the table, yet their offer was significantly lower than the first. Even though they knew they had competition, they still made an uncompetitive bid. 

When my client and I discussed the merits of the two offers and it was clear that the second offer would not get the nod, he expressed sorrow for the losing bidders. “They were such nice people,” he said.

I told him they could have been $35,000 nicer. In business, nice may get your foot in the door. But if you don’t deliver, nice is not enough. 

This will be my first-ever blog post written by candlelight, courtesy of my Verizon 3G hotspot and a generous battery life on the laptop. When you mix a severe combination of snow and ice to trees that still have all of their leaves, you get downed fallen branches by the thousands and power outages all over the area. North Jersey is hit hardest, although Ridgefield, Connecticut also made the news. I have to add Ossining and Briarcliff Manor to the list, as almost 70,000 Con Ed customers in Westchester are entering their second day without power. In all over 2 million are without light. 

We’ve been “camping,” as the blackout has robbed us of light and heat. We do have running water and the gas stove works, so it has made for an interesting weekend. For example, reheating food in the microwave is out. Heating it in the fireplace is in! 

The fridge has been shut all of the last 36 hours, but the ice has melted. As has the ice cream. We’ve put the snow outside to good use, harnessing mother nature for some food preservation, and when the orange juice got too warm I improvised myself. It kind of reminded me of a slushy they used to sell at the delis. No high fructose corn syrup here, though!

 My cell phone, tablet computer and bluetooth all got recharged in the car today. I am good to go all night with power in 2 batteries for the droid phone. The tablet will have to be off as soon as I am done on the laptop, which should leave me with enough power to check for school closings and weather reports- to say nothing of updates from our utility company- until the morning. 

Speaking of the utility company, Con Ed has informed us that we should expect power to be out until 11:50pm on November 2nd. I hope they are subscribing to the “under promise, over deliver” philosophy, because I really could use a shower. A warm one. And it would nice to be able to start living normally again. The kids are in good spirits, but the candle thing doesn’t have the same romance for them. I am starting to agree. 

Earlier today, we stocked up on firewood and tomorrow, in between earning a living, we’ll bone up on the indoor kerosene heater we have in the garage. We have an amazing blower contraption in the fireplace now but it is electric, so I am afraid it is useless to us. Nest year, I install a wood stove. Period. 

 While I was out, the kids had a ball in the snow. I love how they get into it. For me, I have to get into keeping the fire going all night while we all camp in the living room, and I’ll hunt and peck on Ann’s laptop until it runs out of juice, or I run out of inspiration, which ever comes first. The blackout has been an inconvenience, and I am glad that today was by and large supposed to be a light day, so no work was lost or missed. But I really hope the power comes back sooner than the second. I just don’t have enough Abe Lincoln in me to do three more days of this! 

The best use of an agent’s time is to be in front of someone who wants to buy or sell real estate. That is what we work for- we advertise, blog, do mailings, answer the phone, and some even knock on doors to be belly to belly with someone who want to buy or sell real estate. 

So I really have to laugh when I get a phone call from an agent who wants to speak with me for 15 minutes about  one of my listings when just reading the information, a simple drive by, preview, or (shudder) an appointment with their client would answer everything. I understand calling ahead to see if the yard is flat or something that doesn’t make them a time vampire. But these pre-showing interviews really are over the top. 

Do we really need to chat all through lunch to decide if my listing is right for your client? When an agent tries to monopolize my time with a ton of questions a visit or showing would uncover, their answer to my asking why we need to “interview” is always the same:

I don’t want to waste my time if they won’t buy the house. 

Now, the sarcastic side of me says things like Waste your time? What would you be doing if you weren’t with the client? A crossword puzzle?? Farmville? Are you inventing a vaccine for stupidity that you can’t be interrupted to go see the house? 

What could possibly be a better use of one’s time than showing a client a home? The idea that homes must be screened to a fault before you can show the client misses the point. NO client looks at one home. They look at a bunch. And the ones they don’t buy are not a waste of time. They are important work. It’s like dating. You have to get out there and kiss frogs. That’s our work. 

I have learned plenty about clients on days when we didn’t find the house but spent an afternoon together. It helps me get them. We bond. It makes me more attuned to their needs. It is part of the job. As a matter of fact, I have earned my share of loyal buyers who appreciated that I told them I thought a place wasn’t the right fit instead of closing them after every showing. 

If the home fits their criteria, Mr/Ms agent, show them the home. It is the best use of your time and far more productive than asking me how old the roof is and a hundred other questions that make no sense if they haven’t seen the place. 

Bizarro World continues in the real estate industry as our government and business leaders raise tanking consumer confidence in the market to a fine art. 

Take today’s exchange I had with a fellow agent for example. I have a very aggressively priced southern Westchester County listing in a beautiful area that has been on the market for less than a month. It has had almost 30 showings. We’ve gotten 2 offers, but in both cases the buyers backed out before they even did their inspections. Peculiar, and in each instance the buyer agent couldn’t overcome what amounted to cold feet. My seller client, who is not under any financial strain but eager to make a deal, instructed me to sweeten the price to make something happen. 

The agent I spoke with today showed the property a second time to her buyers and emailed me that they were considering an offer. I reached out to see where things stood this morning, and she explained that they liked the place, but were a little hesitant, and wondered aloud why we lowered our price so early into the listing. 

Now, let’s take a look here. The buyer is questioning a price reduction. So here is what I asked the agent:

Would your client rather work with a stubborn seller who is unrealistic about their price? That would be more comfortable? 

She laughed, of course, because not everything is a conspiracy. The guy doesn’t want to wait all winter. That isn’t suspicion. It is motivation. She said she’d advise her people not to look a gift horse in the mouth and get back to me as soon as she could. 

Call me crazy, but I’d rather work with a seller who was eager to make a deal. Maybe we are being too easy! 

People are hurting in this economy. Many good folks who did nothing wrong are caught in the undertow of the recession and can’t find a soft spot to land. Upon occasion, I run into people in those circumstance. If they had been born at any other time in history, they wouldn’t face foreclosure. They’d have equity, probably their job, and even if they were in a pinch they could sell and realize respectable proceeds. But not in this day and age. 

The worst part of owning distressed property is not financial. It is emotional. Most people that face bankruptcy or foreclosure know where their next meal is coming from. But they don’t know what the next mail delivery will bring or who will be calling them the next time a phone rings. Add to that the fact that in Westchester, even modest homes have high prices compared to most of the country, and the hole they stand in seems deeper. 

Today, I explained to a new client what I always say to anyone facing foreclosure:

I will get this done for you. I promise you my very best, and frankly that is pretty good. I will not let you down. I have done this sort of thing over 50 times. I like your chances. 

And with that, my brand new client burst into tears. In a sea of collection calls, nasty letters, a failed loan modification and 2 years of financial setbacks, someone they were referred to by their lender out of the CDPE directory told them that they finally had an ally. 

Ronnie, my admin, had to run and get some tissues, and Mr Seller did what he could to comfort his wife. But the whole thing was cathartic. 

And maybe I sound cocky, I don’t know. All I do know is that we have a track record, I have an awesome team, great lawyers, and a support staff on the admin side that cares as much as I do. I put my good name on the line when I make promises in the face of the unknown, but thus far we’ve been pretty fortunate. The last short sale application that failed and ended in foreclosure was 2007 (and the bank took a six figure bath). The rest closed. 

My clients left the office out a few tears and also having shed some worries as well. For the first time, they had a plan. And a team. And professional help. All my best. Typically, my best gets the job done, and I am not afraid to reassure my clients. Some people need to hear it. 

This afternoon at the Crown Plaza Hotel in Suffern, the membership of the Rockland County Board of Realtors voted overwhelmingly to merge their organization with the Westchester-Putnam and Orange Associations. This was the second thumbs up in three days, as Westchester-Putnam had a similar yes-vote on Monday. Orange will vote on Tuesday. 

You might ask why this is significant to the public. What do consumers care about all this inside baseball stuff? They still have to pay their X% when the house sells no matter who licks the stamps on the stationary. Perhaps. But then again, the public really does not understand the importance of a vibrant and healthy trade organization, it’s impact on the industry, or the benefits to the consumer. And it is our fault for not getting the word out. 

I was in the multi-association work group that explored and shaped the merger initiative. One of the themes of our meetings was that bigger is not automatically better. And it was that sentiment that made us want to make sure that our work made us better first, bigger second. The leadership, by laws, and operations of the new Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors will be more efficient, better serve the members’ needs, and more attuned to addressing the challenges that face our industry. 

We will have a larger pool to choose leadership our ranks. Quality leadership sets the tone for the organization. We will be more tech savvy, more forward thinking, and more in touch with what consumers want and need. 

We will have improved buying power to keep costs down for the products and services our members use to conduct business. Costs savings means stronger companies with more resources to market their listings. 

We will have a continued high bar for our professional standards. The Realtor Code of Ethics is not PR- it governs the standards and practices of members for fair play, advocacy for our clients, the consumers, and keeps the playing field level and fair. 

We will eradicate the mythical boundaries that hinder the mobility of buyers to move from points south to points north. It is well known that wealth in our region often flows from New York city, which borders Westchester county. One association is far better than three for facilitating that commerce. 

A bigger organization that is more solvent means a better organization that can focus on fair play and good business. And that is good for consumers. That is why I am excited.