I am no fan of open houses. I haven’t made a sale at one in a dog’s age (1998 if you really care), they are typically poorly attended, and I can think of better places to catch up on email and reading. Today, however, I hosted a really busy open, with 6 very friendly and engaging parties walking through. Nobody was a quick turnaround out the door, and 2 of the people mentioned they would first have to sell, which I view as a listing opportunity. 

If everything played out perfectly, I could get three new listings from today’s guests, sell another 2 homes, and maybe even sell the home I was holding open. 

So, we had quantity (six people) at today’s open house, and quality (all very friendly and engaged, 2 with homes to sell). I haven’t seen these kinds of results at an open in years and years. And the weather isn’t even very good!  

I view this as a strong indicator that the worst is behind us. I see pent up demand starting to purcolate, and if open houses can be a source for doing business again instead of a futile exercise to pacify a seller (and today’s open was actually my idea), good things are coming. 

I do what works. If open houses are going to be well attended this spring by interested people, then that is a huge change from the bored solitude-fests I have encountered the past few years since the market slowed. So, as long as I get results, I am going to continue to do them. 

Two quick things in the past 24 hours that made me feel just a tad old. One cute, one not so cute. 

Not so cute: One of my agents fired a client today (yes, we do that in some cases) because, frankly, they were too immature. Newlyweds, lots of good reasons to have hope for a good deal there, although unrealistic, which is forgivable, but disrespectful, which is not good at all. My associate broker is a consummate professional, took the high road at all times, was patient, and then spoke with me about a few things that were red flags. We decided it was best to ask them to find other representation. I can educate people on the market. I cannot educate people on how to act. Not surprisingly, their visceral reaction to being given free agency back only confirmed our suspicions. 

Maybe someday they’ll see their folly. Just saying that makes me sound like my dad. 

On the positive side, I also met this morning with a young couple to discuss the sale of their condo. Early on in our conversation it was clear that I’ve logged a few more laps around the block than they; relatively recent college graduates, even more recently married, and looking to sell the condo to move up to a single home with a yard. It’s really hard to believe that grown people could graduate college almost 20 years after I did! I sure don’t feel old enough to be their, um, uncle, but I am! 

This couple will be a pleasure. They get it, and I will enjoy helping them plan a good future home for their family once we sell now. 

The way younger people are so future-centric makes me think. The younger they are, the more they talk about the future and their plans. The older we get, unfortunately, the more we speak of the past.

Want to feel young? Focus on the future. 

Just in case you’re up late and licking your chops about the market change toward equilibrium I just blogged about, I did a comparision of the first 6 weeks of 2010 compared to the first 6 weeks this year. 

In 2010, the first 6 weeks had 377 closings for single family homes at a median sales price of $605,000.

In 2011, the first 6 weeks this year we have had 321 closings at a median sales price of $560,000. 

Should we panic? 

No, we shouldn’t panic. And we shouldn’t blame the weather, because anything that closed in January went under contract long before the severe winter hit. If anything, the weather will affect things next month. We just aren’t out of the woods yet. Six weeks is a valid sample and should not be dismissed as an anomaly, but we can make up that 56 sale deficit in the next 46 weeks. 

I’m not worried about the median price; Westchester values are so huge that a slight shift in the high dollar sector can skew things there. To me, the metric of progress is the number of closings. In 2005, for example, the first 6 weeks had 545 closings. In 2006, it was 477, and in 2007 we closed 489 in the same period. 

What I am encouraged about is the number of buyers I am seeing. Showings are way up, and even if they are mostly lookers, more showings equals more buyers. 

I modestly predict that by the end of 2011 we’ll surpass 2010’s numbers. However, we won’t pass 2010 until after at least mid year, because 2010’s numbers are skewed by the stimulus, which had that year start out stronger and end weakly.The distribution of demand was uneven because transactions went way down after it ended April 30. Look for a more  even distribution this year. And keep your fingers crossed that the economy is in a sustainable recovery. 

Upon occasion, I meet an agent for the first time and they look nothing like their picture on their website or card. Let’s face it…real estate agents are notorious for having absurdly old photos of themselves for way too long. It’s hard to tell someone that they look like the grandmother of the person on their marketing pieces, so for those of you out there that we’ve been too polite to say it to bluntly, here are a few indications that you might want to get a new photo of yourself. 

                          

• If you call to get a reprint and are told the glass plates broke. 
• The watermark is actually from, you know, water. 
• You recall the news of the day it was taken mentioned the Suez Canal, Neil Armstrong, or Watergate.
• You are wearing a small lapel pin of the Brooklyn Dodgers.
• When you meet an agent of the opposite sex in person they are far less flirtatious than they were on the phone. 
• When you meet an agent for the first time they do a double take. 
• When you see your own photo, you start to hum something from the Carpenters. 
• You have a rotary phone up to your ear.
• Your jacket is sky blue.
• There is something made of macrame behind you
• You have big hair.
• You distinctly remember driving home from the photographer in an AMC Gremlin.
• It was taken on film and scanned later. 

Seriously…update that photo! You aren’t fooling anyone! 

                        

I used to joke that if you needed my advice or to borrow money from me that you were doomed. That may still be so; we’ll have to see. One place to look on the advice side is Keller Williams Realty Group in Scarsdale, NY where team leader and Active Rainer Jennifer Maher took a chance on having me give a presentation to her office on creating an online presence.

We had a very good multi media session in their training room on social media, blogging, and online tools that went about an hour in change with a very enoyable, engaged group soaking up my, um, wisdom. We had a lot of laughs and covered quite a bit of what I consider valuable material on integrating a strong online presence for one’s real estate practice, including Facebook, Twitter, Blogging, and even leveraging big sites such as Zillow and Trulia.

Questions and answers followed, and after that Ms Maher, super agent Luis Fernandez and OP Jamal Hadi had a delicious lunch, which was my yummy recompense for sharing my, um, wisdom.

I enjoyed myself. Also present was Michael Brown, whom I closed a deal with in Ossining recently. I have to say that is gives me a smile to walk into a group of colleagues and see someone I am doing a deal with or have had a closing with recently.  Michael was front and center and participated. 

You might ask why I would give a presentation to a comepting office on what I do to attract business. I’ll tell you: Lunch- I mean, it is important to me that we as colleagues raise the bar together. Anyone who has ever picked up a listing sheet and frowned when they saw the listing agent knows what I mean. In our business, we cooperate with our competition (“coopatition”).  Building bridges, helping those with whom I am likely to close a deal with down the road, and being generous of spirit pay dividends.

And I also like Italian food. Did I say that out loud? 

“Please remove shoes.”

These are reasonable instructions, especially in New York, where we have folks of many cultures who don’t wear street shoes in the house. My own home is a shoes off house by and large, as Ann is of Korean descent and the kids are heavily into the rug rat years. My kids’ rolling around the floor doesn’t mix with shoes that were just on a subway platform or in a mens room. Nasty. 

In most cases it isn’t a big deal to remove one’s shoes when touring a home. But if you are a home seller with this type of restriction, you should make an effort to meet buyers halfway on a few things. If you want the shoes off, consider the following:

• Provide shoe coverings. That way, some folks who cannot easily remove their shoes (or don’t have socks) can cover their shoes and not have to take them off. 
• Turn the heat up. Westchester County has a huge percentage of older homes that are not insulated like a new build, so many people sort of cope by wearing a sweater. But when people walk through your home you want them comfortable, and ice cubes at the end of one’s legs isn’t a warm fuzzy. 
• Consider area rugs. Same principle as heat. Hardwood and tile floors are cold. And uncomfortable for those not used to it or who don’t have those nice house slippers you have. 
• ABSOLUTELY get a cheap throw rug for your basement if it isn’t finished. This is a pet peeve of mine. I’m OK in the house and then I get numbness in my extremities in the basement. Not cool. And it doesn’t help sell. 
• Clean up! Legos and Lincoln Logs hurt. And if the bottom of my socks change color because your floor is filthy then what was the point of removing my shoes? Clutter and dirt are a nuisance and deter people from buying. 
• Conversely, if you mopped, dry the floor!!! Wet feet are bad enough but in this cold it is a killer! If all people remember about your house is that yours is the kitchen where their feet got wet, wave goodbye to any potential offer. 

About three weeks ago I wrote a rather forgettable blog post about what $335,000 will buy you in Peekskill, New York. I really like to post these sorts of pieces because they are informative and sneakily self promotional (and I kind of lack any shame about promoting myself), but I have to admit that they aren’t exactly cutting edge commentary. 

Not long after the post went live I got a call from a reporter working on a story on Westchester real estate, and I put her in touch with my clients to help with the story. The report was published in today’s New York Post, and my clients were front and center with two photos and a healthy-sized quote. 

I love that. This has to be the 6th or 7th time I’ve gotten a client into the media, and I have to say that it I something I relish. Not everyone wants to discuss their home purchase with a reporter, but my clients saw the big picture (they started the local dog park, after all) and the opportunity to sell their community. They capitalized. 

I was quoted at the end of the piece also, and a reference was also made to my blog, which I believe was how the reporter found me to begin with. It is a nice feeling to know my efforts can occasionally yield these kind of results. I remain very bullish on Peekskill, by the way. Lots of great housing in this wonderful community on the banks of the Hudson. 

Tonight, the Ossining school board will vote on putting a $69,000,000 bond for school expansions and renovations up for referendum. 

$69,000,000.00.

The issue the district is facing is how to house the growing population of students they serve, which is a good thing. The solution, to spend almost $70 million, strikes me as not such a good thing. A few hundred extra students should not cost $70 million. Not too long ago, the high school was renovated extensively when the baby boom addition was found to have structural problems. The building was expanded later as well. Park school has had a recent addition. Presumably, all of the schools have been responsibly maintained. The superintendent of schools has characterized the initiative as “counterintuitive.” I love the salesmanship. But the price tag worries me terribly.

The breakdown is a follows:

• $30.6 million for the high school
• $24.6 million for the middle school
• $500,000 for Roosevelt, which currently houses 5th grade
• $13 million for Claremont school, including 9 new classrooms

When was this: Every week you’d hear about a bank failing. Real estate crashed. Wall Street crashed. We had a doozy of a recession follow.

2007-2009? 

No. 1987-1989.

History repeats itself. 

The last time we had a three-headed economic monster of a recession, housing collapse, and financial crisis was the late 80s. The parallels with our current problems are uncanny. We have the Sub Prime Meltdown and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac problems; back then it was the Savings and Loan crisis. Are there lesson we can learn from that period that apply to now? I believe there are, mainly because the pattern of the aftermath is also eerily similar. 

In Westchester and Rockland County, the price of homes decreased every year from 1987 until 1991. That was followed by another 5 years of flat performance, until, by about 1995, values had returned to roughly 1986 levels. We are experiencing the same pattern by and large, and I believe the slide to be about over. I think we are now entering a flat period, which means we are past the worst, and the bottom point is in the rear view mirror.

In 2010, both transaction totals and the median price of single family homes both rose from 2009 in Westchester County. The median rising should not be construed that your house rose in value. It simply reflected more activity in $ million homes, which was paltry in 2009. And as we know, just because more $1 million homes sold doesn’t mean a $500,000 home is now worth more. However, the buyer activity thus far since the holidays ended is better now than any year since 2007 according to my observations. Moreover, buyers’ skepticism about competing offers on homes is now at their own peril. Buyers should be aware that for the first time in a long time that they are not alone on competitively priced homes. 

What does this mean to people selling their home? Price it right and you’ll be in better shape now than any time in recent memory. It isn’t a gravy train; it is stability. 

For buyers, this means that if the home you like is an aggressively priced place in great shape, you may not be the only interested party. You probably won’t be able to bend the seller backwards like 18 months ago, but reasonable offers will get you a home. And you may lose if you don’t act on the really mint properties. 

Overall, consumers have had cabin fever for the past 3-4 years and there are too many people who want to have babies, backyards and barbecues for the malaise to last forever. We are nowhere near a hot market, but the tidal change is coming, and the door to progress has opened for the first time in a long, long time. 

One of the things that can make a closing a nightmare (or not occur) is finding out that the house is not in compliance with municipal code. It could be a deck, finished basement, extra bathroom, or any other improvement that the current owners have done or that they inherited from a previous owner. With the number of older homes we have in Westchester, this is not a rare issue. 

In past years, illegal improvements haven’t been a huge deal 100% of the time. Most of the time they had to be corrected or made legal, but upon occasion a few slip through and the home changes title without proper certificates of occupancy. This leaves the current owner with a problem if they want to sell, because they can’t get anything to “slip through” like when they originally bought. In the current paranoid lending environment, it is pretty much impossible to close a sale with outstanding permits or illegal improvements. 

When we list a home, we go to the town or city building department and pull the “property card,” which has the record of all improvements made to the home. If the deck is missing or the bathrooms don’t add up, we have work to do. I can’t market a home as a 3 bathroom home if only two baths are legal. But worse, with an illegal bathroom for example, the title company will not insure the buyer’s mortgage without full code compliance. 

Most of the time, the remedy is simple: the code inspector comes out, signs off on the improvement, and everything is fine. Other times, work must be done to undo poor, sub code workmanship. In severe cases, I have seen entire sheds, bathrooms and other improvements have to be ripped out to get the closing to happen. Worse yet, many of these problems have shown up at the 11th hour, delaying and sometimes cancelling a closing. And that is awful! 

If you are considering selling, make sure the home is up to code. Violations, open permits, and illegal improvements won’t go away if you ignore them. Buyers and title companies want homes with clear title and no compliance issues. Don’t worry about raising the taxes or value. The buyers have the best evidence to grieve taxes going, which is a recent closing. But take care of things early so that closing can be made a reality. 

We have just listed a very rare short sale in Chappaqua, NY. It is a 2 bedroom, 2 bath townhome in Old Farm Lake with a fireplace, formal dining room, hardwood floors, sliding doors to deck, and a renovated granite kitchen. It has a great master bedroom with a walk in closet and master bath. It is over 1700 square feet and in excellent condition. Complex amenities include a pool, clubhouse, and tennis courts.

The price is $399,900 and it will go fast! Call me for a tour. 

I seldom discuss inspection matters, but this is an important issue that is especially common in Westchester, where we have so many older homes.

There is a problem with this circuit panel. It isn’t the age or amperage. But it is a problem and it will need to be replaced. Can you see what it is? 

Here is another picture of the electric service. Do you have any idea how I knew that it would need to be replaced as one of the first projects my buyer clients would need to do once they closed? 

The panel was not flagged by the inspector for having double tapped breakers, poor wires or any do it yourself-sourced problem. 

Here’s the problem:

Federal Pacific Stab-Lok breakers are a fire hazard. They don’t trip the way breakers are supposed to, and that can cause overheating and fire. They have been recalled, but there are still millions out there. If you have an older home, you should check to see if your breaker panel is a Federal pacific Stab-Lok and then call an electrician if it is. 

Don’t take my word for it, ask your electrician. I’m a broker only, but I have heard this too many times to ignore it. Check your breakers and make the call to make sure you are OK. 

I am, from time to time, asked by buyer agents how much is owed on a listing that is being sold as a short sale. We always disclose when a property is being sold subject to lender approval, and I understand the rationale for asking about the numbers, but the underpinnings of the question are based on a misconception.

I’ll explain, but first, a question. 

Which home has a better chance of having the short sale being approved:

• A $500,000 home with a $550,000 mortgage
• A $500,000 home with a $650,000 mortgage

 Many people assume that the house with the $50,000 shortfall is the one that will be easier to have the short sale approved. That assumption is incorrect. The fact of the matter is that the amount that the lender loses in a short sale is immaterial to the approval. Once hardship is established, short sale approval is based on the banks’s valuation of the home, chiefly through an appraisal or Broker Price Opinion (BPO). The lender could be losing $25,000 or $250,000- it doesn’t matter. It all hinges on that appraisal or BPO. 

Why? Because you can’t expect to get more than the market will bring. And if the lender has to seize the home, they will do a BPO on the home and price it accordingly with no regard for the loan amount they foreclosed on. The lender is simply trying to minimize their loss. For that reason, the buyer’s terms are less important in many cases. A regular seller might give a significant premium to a cash buyer for example. A lender in a short sale probably won’t give that term much deference at all.

Therefore, the big question in a short sale is not how much the bank is losing or what they are owed, but if the offer on the table reflects comparable sales activity. That is the great yardstick by which approvals are measured.  

Dealing with the public means dealing with peoples’ foibles. I seldom think much about difficult people once I am finished with them, but recently there was an exception I am moved to reflect on because the meeting was just so weird. It was not unlike many meetings, hi, how are you, and this is the bathroom. The folks were justifiably proud of their home, but somehow combative in our conversation. 

I work with a laptop, and it has spoiled me. Since using it for the past 14 months, I have really seldom had much of a dispute about value. The facts are right there on the screen. Tonight, however, facts were not a priority. The lady was genuinely offended at my price opinion, and informed me that she had two recent appraisals far higher. And rather than just agree to disagree, as some clients have a bigger appetite for speculation than I, the meeting was over and I was thanked for my time. That was it. They asked if I needed any help with my stuff and got up from the table. It was really strange. 

So I left, with a bizarre silence in the room, as I packed away my laptop and the homeowners uneasily stared at the floor with uncomfortable body language. To diffuse the strange tension in the air, and since it was obvious that we would not be doing business, I told them that after they listed I would certainly call their broker if I had an interested buyer. That bought me about an eighth of a second of an eighth of a smirk, and I was thanked for stopping by as the door followed my rear end out. 

I’m fine, but I don’t think these people will be. Clearly, they were very invested in a number, which they didn’t get from me. And most w-2 employees are not accustomed to the nuances of business and large transactions. But this was kind of sad, in that they took my price opinion as a personal insult, to the point that I was out the door within 5 minutes. I certainly do wish them luck, and they’ll need it. Buyers could very well drive these folks crazy, and if they act like they acted tonight their agent may have a tough job. You can’t take things personally in selling a home. 

What’s really too bad is that it was a nice place, but if they overprice it, as I think they will, they’ll be more disappointed than they were tonight. High bidders get the house, and I think these folks will end up keeping theirs. It’s business! Best to not take it personally. 

OK, so My Giants didn’t make the playoffs and I was kind of hoping my friends who are Jets fans would be happy. They aren’t either. This leaves me with 2 teams I am ambivalent about, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers. I’m not the sort of milquetoast guy who just wants a good game. I need to favor one team or another, and this has me looking at how to make a decision. 

Neither team boasts a hotter cheerleading squad, because both have no cheerleaders. So my default criteria is out the window. Sad. 

I have mild connections to both teams. Vince Lombardi, the great Packers coach, was a native New Yorker, Fordham graduate like my dad, and former assistant coach for my Giants. And overall, the Packers and their fans are a down to Earth and likable bunch.

Pittsburgh is in Pennsylvania. I lived in Philadelphia for almost 9 years. I have however, at least been to Pittsburgh, and never been to Wisconsin. Pittsburgh is also a down to earth place with nice people. I don’t know if Primonti Brothers is still there, but they had good pasta in the early 90’s at a good price. 

Green Bay is the mild favorite and I like an underdog, but I think the Lombardi/New York connection is too much to ignore. I’m backing Green Bay. And since I have the day by and large off for a change, I do hope for a good game. 

Anyone who knows me will agree that I have always been a Yankee fan, but one with a deep respect for the National League Legacy of New York. So if you think I am piling on the Mets, you’re wrong. And as a business man, I feel for my fellow New Yorkers who root for the Mets and must suffer through the debacle now in the courts and the media while the connection between Mets ownership and two separate Ponzie schemes -one with Bernie Madoff- play out. 

When the Bernard Madoff scandal first arose, it was made known that Fred Wilpon, owner of the Mets, was an investor. Mr. Wilpon’s reputation has always been beyond reproach. He represented himself as a victim, no different from the rest of the defrauded investors when the news broke. Mr Wilpon also assured Met fans that, while a victim, that the Mets were not adversely harmed and that the day to day operations of the team would not suffer. Last week, it came to light that Wilpon was being sued to return money in what is known as a clawback rule, where stolen money has to be returned, even if the recipient is innocent. In response, and in a move that led to questions about the Mets’ solvency, it was announced that a portion (non majority) of the team would be for sale to a silent partner. 

According to the New York Times, Met ownership was not only a winner from their Madoff dealings, they actually used him very extensively as a line of credit and a depositary for deferred compensation for players and executives. The Trustee for the Madoff victims, Irving Picard, is demanding that the Met ownership pay back all profits as ill-gotten gains in a lawsuit unsealed yesterday, to the tune of $1 billion. Now, a day before the Superbowl, New Yorkers are talking baseball and scandal. That the Mets have to pay something back is not an argument, but the amount is staggering. It has now come to light that the Mets, valued at $858 billion last year by Forbes, are tapped out. 

• The Times has Wilpon’s total debt at $1.5 billion
• The Mets line of credit with Major League Baseball is maxed out. 
• The Mets previous source of credit, Bernie Madoff, is, well, Bernie Madoff. 

If you were a free agent, would you be inclined to sign with this team? 

How can Met fans, who have suffered through misery since Wilpon became majority owner in 2002, be confident in seeing any on-field success with management in such disarray? 

Lack of equity, the inability to borrow out of one’s problems, and the drying up of available credit are eerily similar problems the Mets have with anyone facing foreclosure. The situation is unsustainable, and the Wilpons should bow out with any available grace they now possess. 

The Journal News todays has published four pieces on the health of several Westchester County downtown business districts, all of which are linked below. All of the downtowns written on are pretty good, above average business districts in my view. That is one neat thing about our area- the character of our villages and cities is pretty special. 

• Croton’s business district facing challenges 
• Bronxville-area merchants try new strategies to combat bad economy
• Downtown White Plains: Improving market, but times still tough 
• Mount Kisco’s downtown not booming but holding on 
• All of the reports tell the same story to me, and that is that Main Street is suffering the effects of the recession. In Croton, there have been some vacancies in retail buildings for years since the recession hit in 2008. There was a small, vitriolic group that blamed the vacancies on the local republicans. I am far from a republican supporter, but that is nonsense. This is what happens when the country takes the economic hot that it absorbed the past few years. You can’t blame a village trustee for the recession, Wall Street woes, or the sub prime banking crisis. 
• Every area, large and small, modest and affluent has been affected. In my view, it is a sign of the times. This is cyclical, and  in the ebb and flow of a free market, the vacancies will get filled and  prosperity will come when consumer confidence improves and more money circulates. 
• This too shall pass.