Will 2011 be Better or Worse Than 2010?

A not so deep drilling of sales data from the Empire Access MLS yields some interesting information on how 2011 stacks up to 2010 in the Westchester County single family home sector. 

In April 2010: 284 sales, median price of $590,000. 

From Janurary 1, 2010 through April 30, 2010: 1041 sales, median price $598,500.

In April 2011: 245 sales, median price of $545,000.

From January 1, 2011 through April 30, 2011: 967 sales, median price of $550,000.

Overall, transaction totals are down 7% from last year during the first 4 months of the year and median price is down 8%. 

I don’t consider this to be a double dip. Quite the opposite. I believe that the first half of 2010 was artificially high due to the stimulus, and the crickets chirping after the deadline were the sound of the sales that were poached from the summer and autumn to inflate the spring numbers. 

I believe that 2011 will be more even in nature, with no spike or sudden drop and a more even distribution of sales. We may not top 2010. But we won’t have the dramatic drop off in the second half of the year like we witness in 2010. Call it consistent mediocrity if you want. 

If you’d like to play with the numbers yourself, register for a free Listingbook account and search active and even sold data like an agent.